What’s going well
After a sharp drop from its October highs (
125K+), Bitcoin has undergone significant deleveraging. JPMorgan’s strategist notes that futures open interest relative to market cap has returned to more “normal” levels — reducing some of the risk from over-leveraged positions.
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Some models and forecasts remain bullish in the medium term. For example, one quantile regression model sets a cycle-top target for Bitcoin as high as 250K-$300K this year.
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Support levels are holding reasonably well for now. Indicators show that key support around the ~$100K level still matters.
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⚠️ What to watch / risks
Macro headwinds: Geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., tariffs showdowns) and cautious comments from the Federal Reserve about rate cuts are weighing on risk assets — which includes cryptocurrencies.
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Technical concerns: Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin breaks below key support ( 98K) it could test much lower levels (potentially 70K and below).
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Sentiment and prediction signals are mixed: One popular tracker shows Bitcoin’s sentiment as still “bearish” despite potential upside.
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