The current market is maintaining a weak bearish oscillation trend, with the price at 2268.62. Overall, it's in a consolidation phase dominated by bears, with the daily chart continuously facing pressure within the bearish channel and showing no strong reversal signs. The bullish rebound is merely a technical correction, lacking strength and volume support. After a brief surge, the price quickly faced resistance and pulled back. Short-term indicators still have unmet correction needs, and key support levels are under scrutiny, with the risk of breaking down continuing to rise.
The daily Bollinger middle band is consistently turning downward, indicating ample bearish pressure. Currently, the middle band is around 2290, and the price has been trading below it. In the afternoon session, the closing faced pressure, and the bullish counterattack momentum further weakened, lacking a foundation for sustained upward movement. Combining the current candlestick patterns and real-time order book (opening at 2258.66 and peaking at 2275.20), even if there is a slight rebound relying on short-term support, it's merely a weak correction and unlikely to break through the middle band resistance. Throughout the evening and into the early morning, it's highly probable that we will continue facing pressure and pull back, with the overall downward trend remaining unchanged.
The 12-hour Bollinger Bands are continuously tightening, showing no clear breakout signs. The cycle's movement is relatively dull, and the KDJ indicator has turned down from a high position, now in a low oscillation consolidation phase. Although there's slight repair evidence, the upward space is extremely limited. This cycle typically only closes two candlesticks a day, leading to delayed directional guidance, making it difficult to provide clear one-sided signals in the short term. Even if the subsequent market pulls back to support and slightly rallies, due to insufficient KDJ rebound space, effective breakthroughs are hard to achieve. The larger cycle still maintains a core idea of focusing on high shorts; do not blindly chase longs or attempt to bottom-fish prematurely.
The 6-hour Bollinger Bands have fully formed, with the distance between the upper and lower bands narrowing. The market can't rely on passive closing to open up volatility. The KDJ indicator is synchronously retreating from a high position, having completely exited the overbought zone, with no second push energy. The correction cycle for indicators is extended. Under normal market conditions, the up and down fluctuations will remain limited unless there's a sudden large green candle breaking through the upper band resistance; otherwise, a weak and narrow range oscillation will persist. The bullish momentum is continuously weakening on the 4-hour level, with moving averages turning downwards, forming a bearish alignment, and indicators showing clear divergence. We're currently in a phase of retracement and digestion of the selling pressure from the recent highs, making it difficult to see a strong rebound in the short term.
The 1-hour and 2-hour Bollinger middle bands show clear bearish pressure. The current short cycle middle band is near 2270, closely pressing against the current price. After multiple rebounds touching the middle band, the price quickly fell back under pressure. The middle band has now turned from previous support into strong resistance. It’s essential to closely monitor the suppression of the short cycle middle band, followed by the 4-hour cycle resistance level; any upward pullbacks during the day will be strongly intercepted by multi-cycle middle bands. Even if there’s a spike in price, it’s still an inducement for long positions and the best opportunity to shift into short positions. Expect that after this pullback encounters resistance, the pace of decline will become smoother with no significant rebound space.
Overall: Currently, the bullish force is continuously weakening, relying only on key support below for temporary defense. No trend reversal signals have appeared. Once the key support stabilizes, one can lightly speculate on short longs, but there will be no strong one-sided bullish market today. The main theme will be weak oscillation and gradual decline. In the evening, if there’s no large green candle breaking the daily Bollinger middle band, any high encountered with resistance and closing under pressure should prompt a phased entry into short positions at key resistance levels. Today's core movement revolves around technical indicators repairing and gradually consuming bullish momentum, with slight inducements for long positions during the day. The main operation theme from midnight onwards will still be high short positions.
Trading strategy: Currently maintaining a weak range oscillation within 2238-2275. After a pullback stabilizes on key support, one can lightly enter short-term long positions to capture small rebound profits. At high levels, only short positions should be taken on short-term resistance; do not go heavy on a bearish trend. There’s no significant one-sided downward market in the short term, so it's wise to wait for confirmation of key levels (support or resistance) before entering. Avoid blindly trading at mid-price levels to mitigate loss risks during oscillating markets.
Support level
Short-term core support: 2240-2220
This position is the current short-term Bollinger lower band support level and also the recent low point platform for oscillating downward. Focus on the strength of the support in this range; if it can hold, it may trigger a slight technical rebound, but the rebound height will be limited. If the support is broken by price action, the market will directly enter a weak downward phase, further testing strong support.
Strong support: 2195-2180
This round of market action marks the ultimate defense point for bulls and represents a historical low point for pullbacks. This position has strong support; if the price effectively breaks below it, bearish momentum will be fully released, initiating a new phase of one-sided downward movement. For now, I remain optimistic about the efficacy of this support but will be cautious of the risk of a break.
Resistance level
First resistance: 2270-2285
Currently, the multi-cycle resonance resistance is evident, with the short-term Bollinger middle band and moving averages forming a pressure area. This is also the opening gap for recent high-to-low movements. Once the price touches this area, it is highly likely to experience a stagnation and retreat. This is the first choice for short positions today, and one can enter in batches based on this area.
Second resistance: 2300-2315
The ultimate ideal high short layout for today is in the strong resistance area at the daily level, also the upper pressure of the previous oscillation platform. Given the current weak market, combined with real-time market performance, this area is difficult to reach. One can place orders in advance and enter in batches once reached, reserving a layer for additional positions, firmly betting on a bearish pullback.
Trading suggestions
1. After a pullback to the 2225-2235 range, lightly enter long positions with strict stop loss below 2205, targeting 2270-2280. If the rebound hits resistance or shows signs of pressure, exit immediately, avoid holding long-term, and just capture short-term repair profits.
2. For short positions, directly enter the 2270-2285 range with a stop loss above 2290. For trend high shorts, wait for the 2300-2315 range, entering in batches and setting proper stop losses. As long as the key resistance isn’t broken, maintain a strong bearish outlook and avoid bottom-fishing.
From evening to midnight, the market is expected to oscillate between 2220-2285. Avoid chasing orders or going heavy before a breakout. If there's a slight rise breaking the first resistance level, one can still consider taking high short positions. Once the price breaks below the strong support at 2195, abandon all long positions and follow the market's bearish flow to avoid risks from continued downward trends.