千辰策币

ETH is moving in sync with BTC, but it's lagging, showing less strength and not really dropping much.
Yesterday's strategy worked again: buy the dips at low levels, short at highs.
Yesterday's reference range:
Aggressive: 2000–1990 long
Conservative: 1970–1950 long
Targets: 2050–2080 for a short
The market dipped to around 1964 before bouncing back, peaking over 2040+, hitting the target range, aligning with BTC's structure.
There’s heavy resistance above on the hourly chart, and any push higher will likely lead to long upper wicks, repeatedly piercing and pulling back—a classic case of 'weak bounce, strong sell pressure.'
On the 4-hour and shorter timeframes, KDJ is showing high-level fatigue and divergence → indicators are failing; we’re just looking at candlesticks + Bollinger Bands.
The 6/12 hour charts are seriously overbought; although the Bollinger Bands are opening, the volume isn’t supporting this trend—poor continuation.
ETH itself has a bearish setup on the daily, with mid-term moving averages pressing down, indicating a 'passive bounce, weak bullish foundation.'
Key resistance levels:
First Resistance: 2050–2080 (core shorting zone)
12-hour midline under pressure (around 2060) + previous high points resonating;
This is the limit for the bounce; you can try shorting here for a more reliable signal.
Second Resistance: 2120–2150 (ultimate needle point)
Mid-term pivot for strength; it’s tough to reach tonight;
Only consider extreme setups for shorting, don’t hold high expectations.
Key support levels:
First Support: 2000–1980
Day’s oscillation midpoint;
If the close drops below 1980 = short-term weakness, accelerating the pullback.
Second Support: 1950–1930 (bull’s lifeline)
The bottom of this round's bullish bounce + strong daily support;
Normal pullbacks shouldn’t break below this level;
If it does break down effectively, the bounce is over, and we’re back to a weak downtrend.
Overall structure: bearish weak bounce, reliant on BTC; if BTC is strong, ETH is weak, if BTC is weak, ETH drops first.
Evening rhythm:
First spike to 2050–2080;
Bulls are losing steam, oscillating back down;
Breaking 1980 targets 1950; holding 1980 means more high-level oscillation.

Currently, ETH is in a low, tight range, dominated by bears in a weak consolidation phase. The overall downward trend remains unchanged, and the rebound is merely a technical correction lacking sustained momentum. The daily Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price running below the middle band, indicating a complete bearish channel that hasn't broken. The middle band is around 2190, providing clear resistance. The moving averages are aligned bearishly, with heavy selling pressure stacking above and no signs of a breakout; the larger timeframe maintains a "bearish dominance, with the rebound merely for correction," and short-term fluctuations are unlikely to reverse the downtrend. From the 1-hour chart perspective, the price consistently operates below the middle band, with the middle band around 2142 creating ongoing resistance. The MACD is below the zero line with a death cross, and green bars are starting to emerge, indicating a potential release of downward momentum; the RSI has dropped to around 47, neutral but leaning weak, showing no clear overbought or oversold conditions, overall indicating a "can't drop much more, can't rise much either" scenario, with a downward bias. Evening trades should focus on shorting the rebound, as the rebound is weak and a chase for highs should be avoided to prevent getting caught in a bull trap. First support: 2110–2100. The lower Bollinger Band at the 30-minute mark resonates with recent low points, forming support at the lower range. Holding this may trigger a slight rebound, but breaking below could release bearish momentum, targeting strong support below. Second support: 2080–2070. Previous historical lows and the downtrend continuation platform resonate as support, marking an important defense line in this drop. Touching this level could lead to a sharp rebound; however, a valid breakdown opens up the bearish trend, extending the downside toward around 2050. Resistance levels: First resistance: 2138–2150. The middle band on the 1-hour chart and the upper band on the 30-minute chart resonate as resistance, marking the upper bound of the fluctuation range. Touching this may cause a stagnation followed by a pullback, making shorting the first choice while validating key levels of the rebound strength. Second resistance: 2170–2185. The day's high rebound point and the previous fluctuation platform present strong resistance for the weak downtrend's ultimate rebound target, with a low probability of being reached. This should only serve as a position to set up short orders in a trend-based high.

Evening Analysis
ETH's daily chart continues its downtrend, hitting a low around 2160, currently weakly oscillating around 2190 as it attempts to recover. From a 1-hour perspective, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price being continuously suppressed by the middle band. Although a slight rebound occurred, it is purely a technical correction, and the overall bearish trend remains intact. Currently, the KDJ indicator in the small timeframe is in a neutral to slightly bullish zone, indicating a need for a pullback; the RSI has not entered the overbought zone, suggesting limited rebound potential, with significant selling pressure overhead. Every rebound presents an opportunity to short.
Resistance Levels
First Resistance: 2205-2215
This is the middle band suppression level of the Bollinger Bands and also the high point range for the current rebound. Once touched, it is likely to stall and drop, making it the primary shorting point.
Second Resistance: 2225-2235
A stronger resistance level, which may only be reached if the Bollinger Bands narrow and repair. Upon reaching this level, shorting remains the primary strategy; do not chase longs.
Support Levels
First Support: 2170-2160
This is the recent low point of oscillation. If it does not break below, only a slight rebound can be triggered; however, if it breaks, bearish momentum will be released again, targeting 2140-2130.
Second Support: 2150-2140
This is a historical low point and the last line of defense for bulls. Upon touching this level, one may consider cautiously entering long positions, targeting a rebound of 100-150 points.