When both the S&P 500 index and gold hit new highs, Bitcoin fell against the trend, breaking below $101300—this rare divergence is due to 92,000 BTC collateral hanging on the edge of a liquidation cliff.
01 Market anomaly: Why does Bitcoin fall alone while traditional assets are celebrating?
On November 12, a rare differentiation appeared in global assets:
The S&P 500 index rose 1.3%, led by technology stocks
Gold broke through $4100 per ounce, reaching a historic high
Bitcoin, however, fell against the trend by 2.3%, hitting a low of $101300
This divergence reveals deep changes: capital is shifting from cryptocurrencies to traditional safe-haven assets. Expectations are rising that the U.S. government shutdown will end, and investors are betting that traditional assets will benefit from the release of liquidity, while Bitcoin is temporarily abandoned due to high volatility. Historical data shows that similar differentiation also occurred after the government shutdown in 2019, when Bitcoin saw a surging rebound after a brief lag.
02 On-chain crisis: Why is $101,000 the line of life and death?
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has triple key support around $101,000:
Liquidation intensive area
There are $830 million in leveraged long positions in the range of $101,000-$103,000
Once it falls below, it will trigger a chain liquidation, possibly amplifying the drop to $98,000
Currently, among the open contracts, long positions account for 68%, with high risk concentration
Institutional cost line
The average entry cost of Bitcoin ETF is $98,700, close to the integer level
If it falls below $100,000, it may trigger institutional programmatic stop-loss, exacerbating selling pressure
The miner shutdown price is at $94,000, providing secondary support.
Psychological defense line
$100,000 is an important psychological barrier for retail investors. Falling below may lead to panic selling. On-chain data shows that addresses holding less than 1 BTC have continuously reduced positions recently, indicating a shake in retail confidence.
03 Fund flow: How smart money is positioning
Despite price pressure, on-chain data shows smart money is positioning against the trend:
Whales buying the dip
Addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 41,000 BTC in the past week
These addresses typically correspond to institutional investors, and their operations are leading
The average increase price is around $102,000, indicating recognition of the current valuation.
Stablecoin accumulation
Exchange stablecoin balances increased by $3.7 billion, indicating that off-exchange funds are waiting to enter. These funds usually buy the dip during market panic, providing downward support.
Healthy term structure
The futures market maintains a positive premium, with long-dated contracts having an annualized premium rate of 8%, indicating that the bullish sentiment for the medium to long term has not changed. This structure is rare during declines.
04 Correlation analysis: Why Bitcoin decouples from traditional assets
The 60-day correlation of Bitcoin with the S&P 500 index dropped from 0.61 to 0.38, with three reasons for decoupling:
Policy benefit differences
The end of the government shutdown is positive for traditional corporate profit expectations, but provides no direct help to cryptocurrencies. Gold's rise is driven by risk aversion, while Bitcoin is temporarily classified as a high-risk asset.
Liquidity allocation
The scale of the traditional market far exceeds that of cryptocurrencies. Under the same liquidity release, Bitcoin benefits less. A larger scale of liquidity injection is needed to drive price increases.
Structural selling pressure
Bitcoin faces specific selling pressure: FTX liquidation continues, with monthly sales of about 150,000-200,000 BTC. This structural pressure is amplified during emotionally sensitive periods.
05 Technical analysis: Key positions and future trends
Short-term (1-3 days)
Key support: $100,000 (psychological level), $98,700 (ETF cost line)
Key resistance: $105,000 (200-day moving average), $110,000 (previous high conversion point)
Must break above $105,000 to confirm the formation of a short-term bottom
Medium-term (1-3 weeks)
After the government shutdown ends, the resumption of fiscal spending will release liquidity. Historical analogies show that after the 2019 shutdown ended, Bitcoin rose 23% within a month, and this time may repeat a similar trend.
Risk warning
If it effectively falls below $98,000, it may test $94,000 (miner cost line). Such a drop requires a black swan event to trigger, with a probability of about 25%.
06 Operational strategy: How to respond to different risk preferences
Conservative investors
Wait for a breakout above $105,000 to enter on the right side, set stop loss at $102,000
Position not exceeding 10% of total capital, avoid emotional trading
Pay attention to the fund flow of Bitcoin ETF, continuous net inflow for 3 days can serve as an entry signal
Balanced investors
Gradually build positions in the range of $100,000-$102,000, adding to positions every 2% drop
Total position not exceeding 15%, single loss controlled within 1% of total capital
Synchronize with gold ETF to hedge systemic risks
Aggressive traders
Layout long positions near key support levels, stop loss at $98,000, target $108,000
Use options combination strategy, buy put options with a strike price of $95,000 for protection
Position not exceeding 5%, set hard stop-loss discipline
07 Future outlook: Is breaking below $100,000 a golden pit?
Pessimistic scenario (30% probability)
After the government suspension ends, liquidity injection is less than expected. Bitcoin drops below $100,000 and tests $94,000 support. This situation requires reducing positions and waiting for clear stabilization signals.
Neutral scenario (50% probability)
Bitcoin is oscillating in the range of $98,000-$105,000, using time to digest selling pressure. This trend is the healthiest, laying the foundation for subsequent increases.
Optimistic scenario (20% probability)
After the suspension ends, fiscal spending exceeds expectations, traditional funds overflow into cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin quickly recovers to $110,000 and starts a new upward trend. This situation can decisively increase positions.
The true bottom often emerges during the most pessimistic moments. When retail investors abandon Bitcoin due to rising traditional assets, the continued accumulation by whales may be nurturing a new round of market conditions.
In the cryptocurrency market, the most profitable opportunities often arise when assets are mismatched in the short term. When Bitcoin diverges from traditional assets, it is a good opportunity for value investors to position counter-cyclically.
