When everyone is looking forward to the 'reopening bonus', the market is instead facing a bloodbath - this is not just a technical adjustment, but a precise strike against consensus.
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BTC fell below 100,000, ETH lost 3,200, and US tech stocks collectively collapsed. On the first day of the government's reopening, the market did not welcome the expected celebratory trend; instead, it staged a 'black opening'.
🔥 The two major cores of the abnormal crash
1. Data anxiety erupts
· The non-farm and retail data for September and October, which have been stagnant for 41 days, will be released in bulk · The probability of a rate cut in December plummeted from 69% to 52%, forcing the market to rapidly reprice · Assets based on the 'rate cut narrative' faced indiscriminate selling
2. The rise of AI in China triggers panic on Wall Street
· Alibaba's 'Thousand Questions' upgraded, launching GPT-like proxy AI · The open-source free model may dilute the huge returns on investment of American tech giants · Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report, short sellers amplify anxiety to facilitate a quantitative crash
💸 The truth and turning point of liquidity
Behind the crash lies a liquidity game more critical than 'rate cuts':
· The government's reopening means that the fiscal gates are reopening, and a large amount of funds will be injected into the market over the next two months · Stimulus policies are unavoidable before the midterm elections · Multiple officials hinted: a decrease in reserves may force the Federal Reserve to passively expand its balance sheet
The key is not 'whether to cut rates', but 'when will the money return' - by the end of October, the Federal Reserve has already activated temporary tools to inject liquidity, and the possibility of a rate cut in December still exists.
📊 Technical aspect: a meticulously planned washout
· The Nasdaq precisely fell to the 50-day moving average, becoming the lifeline for bulls and bears · Shorts chose to crash the market on the 'first day of reopening', specifically harvesting the consensus of 'black opening' · The last deep cleaning before the year-end market
Trump hosted Wall Street at the White House, while the market was blood red - the laughter at the banquet has never been related to retail investors.
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Remember: Before liquidity truly returns, every panic is a buildup for the next round of rise. Stay patient, stay alert, the market never performs according to the script of the majority. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #代币化热潮 #美国结束政府停摆 #ETH巨鲸增持 #内容挖矿升级
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