70_ssd(@kai24)'s insights

From a historical perspective, after experiencing a death

70_ssd · 2025-11-16T09:15:00.000Z

From a historical perspective, after experiencing a death cross, will BTC rebound or continue to decline? Bitcoin (BTC) officially triggered a 'death cross' on November 16, 2025, where the 50-day simple moving average (50D SMA) crosses below the 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). This classic technical signal is often seen as a bear market warning in traditional finance, suggesting potential further declines. However, historical data shows that BTC's death cross performance is more complex: it may be accompanied by volatility or slight pullbacks in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it often signifies a local bottom, leading to a significant rebound rather than a sustained collapse. Since 2011, there have been at least 12 death crosses for BTC. Overall statistics: among 11 complete events, the average 30-day return is -3.3% (short-term pressure), but +26.2% over 90 days, +21.9% over 180 days, and +88.9% over 1 year; 7 times achieving positive returns within 1 year. The probability of a rebound is higher (about 70% of cases): since 2017, every death cross has formed a local bottom within ±5 days, subsequently rebounding by 20-50% (short-term window). For instance, after the COVID panic in 2020, the price soared from $6,753 to $69,000 (+715%); after September 2023, BTC rose from $25,842 to a peak of $73,000 (+213%). This reflects BTC's 'anti-fragility': signals lag, capturing opportunities after bad news has been digested. The risk of continuing to decline (about 30% of cases): near cycle tops (like in 2018, 2022), further probing down 20-50% after the cross confirms a macro bear market. However, these are often accompanied by external shocks (like regulation, crashes), rather than being driven by the signal itself. Current: The cross occurring in November 2025 takes place during a retreat from a high of $95,984, similar to the mid-phase of 2023/2024 (bull market). If the cycle is not over (like the halving effect continues), historical patterns support a rebound next week (November 16-23) to $100,000-$110,000, testing previous highs. Conversely, if there is no rebound, it could drop to $80,000 (support from 200D SMA), forming a 'lower high'. Finally, borrowing a phrase seen on X: 'Trade the market you have, not the market you want' to help us make better trading decisions.