Has the 4-year cycle in the cryptocurrency market completely failed? This year's crash has already torn up the old script.

"The cyclical patterns you are obsessed with are no match for the human nature in this game."

Recently, Hunter Horsley's revelations have shattered the consensus in the cryptocurrency community: the once-lauded '4-year bull-bear cycle' led many to believe that a downturn wouldn't occur until 2026, yet a large number of investors unexpectedly sold off this year as a hedge. This wave of concentrated exits has directly dragged 2025 into a downward channel, causing the myth of the 4-year cycle that had persisted for years to collapse instantly.

In fact, this outcome has long been foreshadowed. The cryptocurrency market is no longer in the wild days of 'halving equals bull market.' After the arrival of spot ETFs, institutional funds have entered on a large scale, completely rewriting the old logic dominated by retail investors. The days when one could just 'stick to the cycle' and earn effortlessly are gone; those who still cling to the old script will only become the bag holders standing at high positions — this year's collective crash is the best proof: everyone wanted to 'escape early,' but in the end, they all blocked their own exit routes.

More importantly, the market situation in 2026 has become the 'Schrodinger's puzzle.' Without a cyclical anchor point, the cryptocurrency market no longer has shortcuts to guaranteed profits; it now relies solely on real skills: keeping a close eye on new capital flows and thoroughly understanding sector rotation logic, rather than just waiting for ups and downs while staring at the calendar.

Are you still holding on to the old almanac of 'must rise every 4 years'? Tomorrow, I will break down the three core directions that institutions are quietly laying out. Would you like me to organize it into an easily understandable layout checklist for beginners?

Follow me, and I will help you see through the fog of on-chain data. If you are unsure about specific entry and exit points, feel free to reach out to me at @宝叔讲币 to lock in quality layout opportunities in advance!