Current price: 3201.35 USDT
24-hour change: -0.294%
Major support level: 3089.76 USDT (BOLL lower band)
Major resistance level: 3247.10 USDT (BOLL upper band)
Current trend: Fluctuating bearish
Detailed explanation:
Technical indicators collectively show that the market is in a stage of bullish-bearish competition. From the moving average system, MA5 (3151.25) and MA10 (3161.33) form a golden cross but are below MA20 (3168.43), indicating a short-term moving average system arranged in a fluctuating bearish manner. MA120 (3526.80) is significantly higher than the current price, indicating that the medium to long-term trend remains bearish.
The MACD indicator shows DIF (-48.71) crossing above DEA (-62.11), with the histogram turning positive (13.40), indicating a short-term golden cross signal; however, it is still operating below the zero line, indicating that the bearish pattern has not fundamentally changed.
The BOLL channel is narrowing (bandwidth 0.05%), with the price operating below the middle band, %B value is 0.70%, indicating that the price is in a weak area between the middle band and the lower band. The RSI indicator shows divergence, with RSI6 (59.58) close to neutral and bullish, while RSI14 (47.43) and RSI24 (44.95) remain in the bearish zone, overall showing a neutral to weak stance.
In the KDJ indicator, K value (65.88) is higher than D value (55.21), and J value (87.22) indicates overbought conditions, suggesting short-term pullback pressure.
The funding rate of 0.01000000% is at a neutral level, with no significant extreme bullish or bearish sentiment. Volume analysis shows a recent increase in volume during declines (e.g., 1763049600000 period with a volume of 2.32 million), but the volume for the last few 4-hour periods has shrunk, indicating a weakening of downward momentum.
Capital flow data shows that contract funds experienced a net inflow in the 1H (97.61 million) and 6H (480 million) periods, but there were significant net outflows in the 24H (-16.91 million) and longer time frames (3D/5D/7D), indicating intense short-term capital speculation while medium to long-term funds are still flowing out. Spot funds saw a net inflow of 46.26 million in 24H, suggesting that there is bottom-fishing capital entering the spot market.
Analysis results
Direction: Cautiously short
Entry timing: Consider gradually building short positions when the price rebounds to the 3220-3240 range (from BOLL middle band to upper band area)
Stop-loss setting: 3280 USDT (approximately 2.5% stop-loss margin, considering ATR value is 80.16)
Target price range: 3080-3100 USDT (support area at BOLL lower band, expected return rate 3.5-4%)
The current market is at a critical decision point; although short-term technical indicators show signs of a rebound, the medium to long-term bearish pattern has not changed, suggesting a cautious strategy of shorting on rebounds. If the price effectively breaks the stop-loss level of 3280, the market direction needs to be reassessed.
Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!#山寨币市场回暖
