$BTC has officially printed a Death Cross — and while many accounts are quick to point at the four previous Death Crosses this cycle that perfectly marked bottoms, that narrative is heavily biased. To understand the real implications, you have to zoom out.
Death Crosses inside a bullish cycle behave differently when viewed through a time-based and cycle-based lens. They are often designed to trap traders who react emotionally rather than contextually. Yes, this cycle has seen 4/4 Death Crosses flip bullish — but patterns don’t continue forever, especially as Bitcoin approaches the statistically critical late-cycle window.
This current Death Cross looks far more similar to the ones seen in March 2018 and December 2021, both of which appeared closer to macro cycle tops, not mid-cycle acceleration zones. Context, market structure, and where we are within the broader cycle matter more than any standalone indicator.
Unlike earlier crosses, this one isn’t forming at the start or middle of a bull market — it’s emerging near the end of the cycle. That increases the probability of it being a bearish structural signal rather than another fake-out bottom.
Short-term relief bounces are still possible, but until Bitcoin reclaims key high-timeframe levels, the broader trend remains tilted bearish.$BTC
