🌐 Global Market Cap: 3.13T, stabilizing after fluctuations, Bitcoin finds support around $95,000, temporarily away from the low of $92,935.
📶 Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 17, cautious observation. Global risk asset sentiment is weak, concerns persist over the high valuations of tech stocks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
💸 Funds and Liquidations
Market Volatility: Bitcoin briefly fell below $93,000, hitting a year-to-date low of $92,935.51, but then rebounded.
Key Technical Levels: $92,000 is seen as a key support level for Bitcoin. The current $102,000 (20-day EMA) constitutes recent resistance, while $107,000 (50-day EMA) and $109,000 (100-day EMA) form stronger resistance zones.
🔥 Today's focus
Japan launches massive fiscal stimulus: The Japanese government announced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 17 trillion yen (approximately 110 billion USD) aimed at alleviating household inflation pressures and supporting strategic industries such as AI and semiconductors. This plan may increase global market liquidity and potentially drive funds into assets like Bitcoin through yen depreciation.
Japan plans to significantly relax cryptocurrency regulations: The Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan plans to classify 105 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, as financial products. Core reforms include:
Significantly reducing capital gains tax: from a maximum of 55% to 20%, in line with stock tax rates.
Allowing traditional financial institutions to sell cryptocurrencies: Banks and insurance companies can offer cryptocurrencies to clients through their securities subsidiaries.
Incorporation into financial regulatory oversight: Incorporating cryptocurrencies into the scope of insider trading rules and requiring exchanges to provide adequate risk disclosures.
Fed's December rate cut expectations cool: Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed have dropped from 70% at the beginning of November to 40%. Several Fed officials have made hawkish statements, such as Fed Governor Logan saying it is 'difficult to support a rate cut in December', and Cleveland Fed President Mester believing rates are 'hardly restrictive'.
Uncertainty from missing U.S. economic data: The previous prolonged government shutdown has resulted in the inflation and full employment data report for October 'may never be' released, creating greater uncertainty for Federal Reserve decisions and investor judgments.
📊 Mainstream coins and popular sector performance
₿ BTC: About $95,674 (briefly dipped to $92,935 intra-day before rebounding).
Ξ ETH: Price to be updated, but benefiting from Japan's regulatory reforms (ETH is one of the 105 cryptocurrencies recognized in Japan).
🌍 Macro and regulatory dynamics
Potential shift in global liquidity environment:
Japan: Launching a stimulus plan exceeding 17 trillion yen.
China: The central bank conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation on November 17.
United States: Government shutdown ends, Treasury general account expected to release funds.
These factors collectively suggest that global liquidity may shift towards easing, which is a long-term positive for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Geopolitical and market impacts: Tensions in China-Japan relations affect the market, with China advising citizens not to travel to Japan, leading to declines in Japanese tourism and retail stocks.
🐌 Market insights
On November 17, the market is looking for direction amid news of Japan's massive stimulus plan and significant changes in cryptocurrency regulations.
In the short term, the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and uncertainty from missing key U.S. economic data have suppressed market performance. Technically, Bitcoin found support around $92,000, but a dense resistance band formed in the $102,000 to $109,000 range requires a strong catalyst to break through.
In the medium to long term, Japan's stimulus plan exceeding 110 billion USD and regulatory changes such as drastically reducing the cryptocurrency tax rate from 55% to 20% greatly improve the macro environment for cryptocurrencies and traditional funding entry channels. This is not only a significant shift for Japan but may also prompt other major economies to reassess their cryptocurrency asset regulatory frameworks.
