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🔈【Breaking】The internal divisions of the Federal Reserve are fully exposed! Is a rate cut in December still on the table?
Powell previously dropped a "deep-water bomb," stating that a rate cut in December is "far from a done deal." As soon as this statement was made, the market instantly cooled down, and the previously hot expectations for a rate cut were doused with cold water.
🔥 Core Contradictions
· Conflicting Views: The latest statement from Governor Waller firmly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, warning that "the labor market is on the verge of stalling." This sharply contrasts with Powell's cautious remarks, highlighting the significant divide within the Federal Reserve.
· Key Data Missing: Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, key economic data such as the September non-farm payroll report has been delayed. Powell himself acknowledged that it's like "driving in the fog," leading to "very high uncertainty" in the economic outlook.
· Market Expectations Rollercoaster: Influenced by Powell's hawkish comments, market bets on a December rate cut have dropped sharply from nearly 100% probability to about 65% (other data shows it once dipped to 40%), with very volatile fluctuations.
💡 What does this mean for us?
The lack of consensus within the Federal Reserve, coupled with the absence of key economic data, indicates that future market volatility is likely to intensify. Any ad-hoc remarks from a Federal Reserve official could cause the market to swing dramatically.
In the face of this uncertainty, savvy investors might consider:
✅ Avoiding unilateral bets—policy paths may have variables.
✅ Strictly controlling leverage—preventing being caught in severe fluctuations.
✅ Closely monitoring the Federal Reserve meeting on December 9-10—this will be a key point in determining the market direction at year-end!
What do you think about the upcoming trends? Bottom fishing or waiting on the sidelines? Let's chat in the comments! 👇
#美联储何时降息？
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Powell previously dropped a "deep-water bomb," stating that a rate cut in December is "far from a done deal." As soon as this statement was made, the market instantly cooled down, and the previously hot expectations for a rate cut were doused with cold water.
🔥 Core Contradictions
· Conflicting Views: The latest statement from Governor Waller firmly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, warning that "the labor market is on the verge of stalling." This sharply contrasts with Powell's cautious remarks, highlighting the significant divide within the Federal Reserve.
· Key Data Missing: Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, key economic data such as the September non-farm payroll report has been delayed. Powell himself acknowledged that it's like "driving in the fog," leading to "very high uncertainty" in the economic outlook.
· Market Expectations Rollercoaster: Influenced by Powell's hawkish comments, market bets on a December rate cut have dropped sharply from nearly 100% probability to about 65% (other data shows it once dipped to 40%), with very volatile fluctuations.
💡 What does this mean for us?
The lack of consensus within the Federal Reserve, coupled with the absence of key economic data, indicates that future market volatility is likely to intensify. Any ad-hoc remarks from a Federal Reserve official could cause the market to swing dramatically.
In the face of this uncertainty, savvy investors might consider:
✅ Avoiding unilateral bets—policy paths may have variables.
✅ Strictly controlling leverage—preventing being caught in severe fluctuations.
✅ Closely monitoring the Federal Reserve meeting on December 9-10—this will be a key point in determining the market direction at year-end!
What do you think about the upcoming trends? Bottom fishing or waiting on the sidelines? Let's chat in the comments! 👇
#美联储何时降息？
$ETH
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
$XRP
{spot}(XRPUSDT)
$SOL
{spot}(SOLUSDT)
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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