Brothers, listen up! The Bitcoin 50-week moving average has been completely lost, and this bear market cap has been firmly placed—don't hold out any hope!
The 'futures gap' of 92,000 has already collapsed, and the price is likely to continue to fall. This gap needs to be filled. After that, the market is very likely to drop below the 90,000 mark, which may stimulate a wave of buying, creating a small rebound. But don't be fooled by the rebound—rebound does not mean reversal! Unless the price can rise above the 50-week moving average and stay there for more than three days, any rise is just a 'dead cat bounce,' signaling you to cut losses and escape, not a call to charge forward! After the rebound, there might be an even sharper decline that directly kicks the market into the abyss of panic.
To understand what's happening with this decline, we first need to clarify who is selling off and who is buying. In the past 30 days, long-term holders have started selling hundreds of thousands of bitcoins—not in panic selling, but as a normal profit-taking in the second half of a bull market. But here’s the problem: in the previous bull market, there was enough demand to absorb this selling pressure. Now that demand has collapsed, as prices fall, long-term players are still selling, but the number of buyers is pitifully small.
The most fatal issue is that demand has completely collapsed! In the U.S., spot ETF funds have not only stopped flowing in but are also starting to run out in large volumes. Coinbase premiums have consistently been negative, indicating that large funds in the U.S. are not buying, they are selling! Supply and demand are completely misaligned; selling pressure is overwhelming buying power, so prices naturally cannot hold.
The movements of the whales are even more interesting—new whales that entered the market at the end of October had an average cost of around 110,000, and are now overall trapped. In early November, they lost over 1 billion dollars, with a loss of 500 million just on November 7! In contrast, the old whales are sitting tight, and the overall holdings of the whale group are still slowly increasing. This indicates that the main sellers are new large holders and short-term players who cannot withstand the volatility, while the old players are not in a hurry at all.
The bigger storm is in the traditional financial market. The Federal Reserve and several major banks held an emergency closed-door meeting, indicating that the pressure signals in the interbank short-term lending market have skyrocketed, and liquidity is about to seize up. Strangely, the Federal Reserve has a cheap lending program called the 'Standing Repo Facility (SRF),' yet banks prefer to borrow elsewhere at higher interest rates rather than touch this program—why? They’re afraid of exposing their 'weakness'! This is like a person dying of thirst who would rather buy an expensive milk tea than accept the bottled water you offer, just to maintain the appearance of being wealthy. This signal is extremely dangerous, indicating that liquidity within the financial system has become absurdly tight!
Now the Federal Reserve is also in an awkward position, with inflation pressure still present. Trump said, 'There is no inflation in America,' and then lowered agricultural tariffs to stabilize food prices, which is contradictory. In this situation, the probability of a rate cut in December is less than 50%; relying on 'massive liquidity injections' to save the market? There’s no chance of that in the short term!
My conclusion as a sailor is clear: the bear market has been confirmed, with both technical and sentiment indicators entering the bear market zone. The reasons for this decline are twofold: first, sharks targeting the market due to the market makers' gaps and panic selling, coupled with long-term holders taking profits, resulting in immense selling pressure; second, demand has completely collapsed, with key buying power—spot ETF funds—flowing out, leaving nobody to absorb the selling pressure.
Currently, market sentiment is extremely fearful, which often indicates a local bottom, but those looking to buy the dip must be prepared for further declines. Any rebound that fails to reclaim the 50-week moving average is just a 'dead cat bounce.' If the liquidity pressure in traditional finance is not resolved, the market may encounter the next black swan—after all, the Federal Reserve's means of market rescue are now limited.
Now it's an ultimate stress test. For us ordinary players, short-term spot can be reduced a bit; long-term players can do as they please, no need to worry; contract players should manage themselves; for specific operations, feel free to come chat with me, the sailor!
