6.2 billion dollars in options are set to expire at the end of the month with a strike of $BTC . The current price of the coin is $77,250, above the max pain point of $75,000. The max pain point is where option sellers want the price to stay, causing the buyers' premiums to go to zero, so institutions are motivated to short and push the price down towards $75,000.
However, there are nearly $400 million in put options around the $75,000 level, acting as a strong support line that won’t be easily broken. On the upside, $80,000 is the most densely populated area for call options at $532 million; as the price approaches, institutions will sell Bitcoin to hedge, creating a strong resistance that is hard to break through all at once.
Therefore, before the expiry, it’s highly likely we’ll see high-level consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000. If the price drops to around $75,000–$75,500, it’s a good opportunity for dollar-cost averaging; no need to panic sell. If there’s a sudden positive catalyst that forces a breakout past $80,000, institutions will be forced to chase buy, leading to a cascading surge, but that scenario is on the lower probability side.
However, there are nearly $400 million in put options around the $75,000 level, acting as a strong support line that won’t be easily broken. On the upside, $80,000 is the most densely populated area for call options at $532 million; as the price approaches, institutions will sell Bitcoin to hedge, creating a strong resistance that is hard to break through all at once.
Therefore, before the expiry, it’s highly likely we’ll see high-level consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000. If the price drops to around $75,000–$75,500, it’s a good opportunity for dollar-cost averaging; no need to panic sell. If there’s a sudden positive catalyst that forces a breakout past $80,000, institutions will be forced to chase buy, leading to a cascading surge, but that scenario is on the lower probability side.