白鲸Crypto

Recently, both the US and China have been ramping up regulations: the US is cracking down on overseas accounts, and China is tightening up on cross-border brokers, effectively welding shut their front doors to prevent the flow of people and money. The normal compliant channels for offshore asset allocation are narrowing, and friction is increasing.

But the demand for funds to exit and hedge hasn’t disappeared. When the front door is blocked, assets like $BTC and $USDT , which can naturally cross borders and are hard to intercept, become that invisible window. The stricter traditional finance gets, the more funds are pushed to slip through that window.

Both sides are wary of potential conflicts, reducing their dependency on one another. In the past, if you deposited your money in the other party's bank or bought their government bonds, if things went south, they could freeze your assets with a keystroke, just like Russia's overseas assets got frozen.

The outcome is that now no big country trusts the other. In this era of mutual suspicion, Bitcoin and gold have become the same hard currency, because no one can wipe them out or freeze them with an executive order. They have turned into the only absolutely neutral safe haven that both opposing camps can recognize.

However, under the collapsing nest, where can the eggs be safe? Major powers are dividing, and Bitcoin can’t completely stay out of the fray; it is now also forced into two worlds. The US is desperately trying to 'recruit': through spot ETFs and Wall Street compliance, turning Bitcoin into a compliant financial toy wrapped in dollars, taxable in the US. China is working hard to 'isolate': building high firewalls, strictly banning domestic trading, preventing it from crashing into their financial and forex security.

The result is that Bitcoin might split into two chunks: one chunk is the 'Wall Street compliant Bitcoin' in suits sitting in offices; the other chunk is the 'wild native Bitcoin' that grows ferally on the fringes of regulation.

The era of 'global family, capital running free' is over; now it’s the era of 'building walls and prioritizing safety.' As long as the big powers are still on guard against each other and tightly controlling traditional finance, Bitcoin's macro value as a 'safe exit' and 'decentralized vault' will always have a strong underlying demand.

6.2 billion dollars in options are set to expire at the end of the month with a strike of $BTC . The current price of the coin is $77,250, above the max pain point of $75,000. The max pain point is where option sellers want the price to stay, causing the buyers' premiums to go to zero, so institutions are motivated to short and push the price down towards $75,000.

However, there are nearly $400 million in put options around the $75,000 level, acting as a strong support line that won’t be easily broken. On the upside, $80,000 is the most densely populated area for call options at $532 million; as the price approaches, institutions will sell Bitcoin to hedge, creating a strong resistance that is hard to break through all at once.

Therefore, before the expiry, it’s highly likely we’ll see high-level consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000. If the price drops to around $75,000–$75,500, it’s a good opportunity for dollar-cost averaging; no need to panic sell. If there’s a sudden positive catalyst that forces a breakout past $80,000, institutions will be forced to chase buy, leading to a cascading surge, but that scenario is on the lower probability side.

May 21 / Whale Daily
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.67 Trillion
Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $9 million, marking a continuous net outflow of $1.279 billion over the past four days.
$BTC Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday's spot net inflow was $0.46 billion, with contract net inflow reaching $0.768 billion.

Key Levels
$75,000 - $76,000: A cluster of high-leverage long positions; a drop below could trigger a cascade of long liquidations.
$79,000 - $80,700: A dense short leverage zone (beware of double liquidations after a spike).

Market Highlights
Geopolitics: Trump announced a halt to the planned military strike on Iran at the request of Middle Eastern leaders, stating that “serious negotiations are underway,” easing tensions in the region; the earlier risks in the Strait of Hormuz had pushed oil prices higher, but prices declined significantly post-announcement, leading to a short-term optimistic sentiment, though geopolitical risk premium remains.

Federal Reserve Dynamics: Trump will personally preside over the swearing-in of the new Fed Chair, Waller, this Friday at the White House, breaking tradition; Powell's term has ended, but he will continue as a board member until January 2028, highlighting Trump's control over Fed appointments, which may intensify short-term policy uncertainty.

Financial Dynamics: Nvidia reported Q1 revenue of $8.16 billion (massively beating expectations), with data center revenue at $7.52 billion showing significant year-over-year growth. The company announced an additional $80 billion in buyback authorization and raised its dividend, while also expecting to begin shipments of the Vera Rubin platform in the second half of the year. Institutions generally believe that strong performance and forward guidance reinforce Nvidia's dominance in AI chips, keeping the long-term growth narrative intact; SpaceX filed an S-1 with the SEC, planning to go public at a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, with Musk maintaining control through super voting rights.

Important Event Forecast:
On May 21, the Fed will release the minutes from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting (the last during Powell's term, signaling the start of the Waller era).

Trend Outlook
US stocks rebounded on the back of falling oil prices and uplifting tech earnings, which also boosted the Bitcoin market. Institutions are continuously allocating Bitcoin through ETFs, and overall, the easing geopolitical tensions favor risk assets. However, the Fed's hawkish minutes and the mega IPO window could introduce volatility; short-term capital flow fluctuations need monitoring, and it's advisable to keep an eye on economic data to validate the Fed's path.

May 19 / Whale Daily
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.65 trillion
Market Liquidation Situation: $308 million total liquidations in the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $205 million.
Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $200 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF continues to experience an outflow of $28.8 million.
BTC Inflow/Outflow: BTC had a net inflow of $285 million in spot trades and $200 million in contracts yesterday.

Key Levels
$78,500 - $79,000: A cluster of high-leverage short positions (breakouts could trigger a chain reaction of short liquidations)
$75,000 - $76,000: A dense area of long liquidations (breaking below may accelerate a pullback towards $76,000)

Market Highlights
Geopolitical: Trump has announced a halt to military strikes against Iran at the request of Middle Eastern leaders, stating that "serious negotiations are underway," easing tensions in the region; previously, risks in the Strait of Hormuz had driven up oil prices, but prices have significantly retreated following the announcement, leading to a short-term boost in optimism while geopolitical risk premiums remain.

Fed Dynamics: Trump will personally oversee the swearing-in of new Fed Chair Waller at the White House this Friday, breaking with tradition; Powell's term has ended, but he will continue as a governor until January 2028, highlighting Trump's control over Fed personnel, which may exacerbate short-term policy uncertainty.

Crypto Dynamics: In just the past two months, the Ondo project's multi-signature wallet has transferred over 328 million ONDO ($98.42 million) to exchanges like Coinbase; a new agreement between Hyperliquid and Coinbase along with Circle allows the protocol to capture most reserve income generated from stablecoin deposits on the platform. As income shifts from trading activity to stablecoin balances, the protocol could create significant long-term buying pressure for HYPE.

Trend Perspective
Trump's delay of the strike against Iran injects short-term optimism, but uncertainty in the Middle East lingers; oil prices may have temporarily retreated, but geopolitical risk premiums remain. Precious metals face dual pressure from the dollar and yields. $BTC needs to find support amid ETF outflows and macro fluctuations. Before breaking out or down, expect it to form a new consolidation range, roughly between $75,000 and $79,000. Before breaking below $74,900, consider trying to high sell and low buy.

May 14/ Whale Daily
Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.73 trillion
$BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $346 million yesterday; ETH Spot ETF experienced a net outflow of approximately $14 million;
$BTC Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday, there was around $212 million in spot outflows and a net outflow of about $802 million in derivatives.

Key Levels
$80,000-$82,000: A massive cluster of high-leverage shorts (any surge could trigger a series of short squeezes). Currently, long liquidations are primarily concentrating around the $78,000 mark, with weak scale, leaning towards a “liquidity sweep to the upside” structure.

Market Highlights
Federal Reserve Update: Kevin Walsh has officially been confirmed by the Senate with a 54-45 vote to take over from Powell as Fed Chairman, effective May 15; PPI surged 6% year-on-year, hitting the highest point since 2022, driven by rising energy and transportation costs pushing service sector inflation to a four-year high; 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.046% (breaking 5% for the first time since 2007), with a nearly 50% probability of rate hikes this year putting pressure on the bond market and risk assets.

Geopolitics/Policy: Trump visits China today, with the U.S. government inviting CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, ExxonMobil, Boeing, and others to join him, signaling a thaw in U.S.-China interactions; Walsh's appointment coincides with the visit, increasing sensitivity to global central bank policies.

International Commodities: OPEC's crude oil production hit a new low in April since 1990 (plummeting by 1.727 million barrels per day), with Saudi Arabia contributing half of the drop; supply contraction combined with geopolitical factors has led to a short-term rebound in oil prices, maintaining expectations of a tight supply balance.

Trend Perspective
April PPI exceeding expectations along with a change in Fed leadership has raised the short-term rate hike probability to around 50%, with rising yields putting pressure on risk assets; however, Trump's visit to China is expected to ease trade tensions, benefiting global supply chains and tech stocks. In the medium to long term, OPEC's production cuts support oil prices, while gold's safe-haven value becomes more pronounced; although crypto is under pressure in the short term, institutional ETF holdings remain stable, with strong support for BTC around $78,000. The market is in a window of intertwined policy uncertainty and event-driven dynamics, with volatility remaining elevated

A man's joy: No matter how many billions he's worth, drinking and grilling skewers must be done shirtless!

$LAB is so damn exhilarating, LAB just hit the historic high of $4, then it crashed hard in the early hours. Across the network, $39 million in long positions became instant fuel. This morning, a whale quietly started unloading, and by noon, not even a herd of nine bulls could hold it up, it plummeted to $0.67 in just a few hours—what's the difference from going to zero?🤣

The wildest part is, there's a clairvoyant wallet that quietly accumulated at $0.20 weeks in advance. Just before the crash, it precisely dumped 575,000 coins onto exchanges, raking in $1.13 million. Now that's what I call a perfect exit! Altcoins are all about information warfare; playing this game feels like running naked! How can us small retail traders keep up?🤣

[April 29 Crypto Daily]
Total market cap: $2.64 trillion
Liquidations: $189 million total liquidations in 24H, with $127 million from longs
External markets: Gold $4600/oz | WTI Crude $99 | Dollar Index 98.58

Key Levels
The market has been in a series of shakeouts before a slight pullback, waiting for the FOMC decision to catalyze movement. The 77k-78k zone above is where shorts are getting liquidated heavily, and in the short term, the trend leans towards a 'short squeeze' testing resistance. However, there’s still some long leverage stacked near 75k; if it breaks down, it could trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations leading to a quick drop.

Market Highlights
Geopolitics: The UAE has officially exited OPEC, making it unlikely for Brent crude to experience significant volatility in the short term, mainly due to the bottleneck in energy exports caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In the medium term, if a peace agreement is reached between the US and Iran and shipping in the strait returns to normal, the UAE will be free to ramp up production beyond quotas, increasing global supply pressure and raising the risk of falling oil prices. Trump previously portrayed Iran's situation as a 'collapse,' while the US has prohibited its entities from paying Iran transit fees, further escalating geopolitical tensions. Short-term oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks, but medium-term expectations for supply easing may weaken OPEC+'s price support capability, keeping energy inflation pressure a significant variable in the Fed's decision-making.

Fed Dynamics: The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is set to announce its decision today, with the market generally expecting the federal funds rate to remain at current levels. The focus is on whether the statement will hint at a pause in rate cuts. Uncertainty around the rate path may continue to suppress valuations for risk assets, putting pressure on precious metals and the crypto market in the short term. However, if the statement releases dovish signals, it may boost safe-haven demand.

Crypto Dynamics: Reports from Coinbase and Glassnode indicate that the market remains influenced by macro and Middle Eastern situations, with unclear direction. However, ETH shows a decline in short-term holdings and an increase in long-term holders, indicating clearing of speculative funds and structural improvement.

Trend Outlook
This week’s FOMC decision will serve as a short-term market barometer. Despite oil prices spiking due to geopolitical tensions, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged. If the statement emphasizes 'data dependency' and avoids being overly hawkish, it could alleviate market concerns about stagflation and support a rebound in risk assets. If Powell signals any dovish tone, BTC could potentially reclaim levels above $78,000; conversely, inflation pressure from oil prices may lead to synchronized adjustments in crypto and US equities.

Let me show you my skills
All day talking about exchange rates, but how much crypto do you really hold, bro? $USDT

$币安人生
Just now, 11.4 million dollars worth of tokens were transferred on-chain. Retail investors think that the big players are hoarding tokens, but it is more likely that they are inducing retail investors to FOMO buy in and take over. You might think that a 22% control rate is okay, but this is just what the big players want you to see. The low-position chips that are not visible have increased nearly 10 times from the bottom to the peak. Brothers, it's time to stop. The big players are already offloading, and we have reached the slaughter line. Be sure not to get harvested.

$BTC Trend Forecast
Scenario 1: Ceasefire Agreement Breakdown (Probability: 60%)
On the eve of April 21, due to Israel's continuous actions in Lebanon, the market is likely to anticipate a "failed negotiation". Relying on the toll station in the Strait of Hormuz, the rigid buying power brought by Bitcoin payments is highly likely to push the price into the range of 78000-80000 next week.

Scenario 2: Ceasefire Extension (Probability: 30%)
Both parties take a step back and agree to extend the observation period by another two weeks; the sentiment will quickly cool down, and the price is likely to retrace to the chip consolidation area of 68000 - 69500, clearing out highly leveraged long positions and entering a high-level fluctuation.

Scenario 3: Reaching a Substantial Open Agreement (Probability: 10%)
Iran cancels the toll station, and the U.S. partially lifts sanctions (extremely low probability). The "toll fee necessity" for Bitcoin instantly disappears, and the price will undergo a sharp devaluation correction, testing the support level of 62000.
#美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡

Do you think the US-Iran negotiations will be successful?

I believe everyone should not be deceived by the ceasefire. The shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz has only recovered to about 5% of pre-war levels, and giants like COSCO have yet to resume their routes. This ceasefire feels more like a halftime break, as there are fundamental contradictions in both sides' core demands.

The US demands that Iran completely denuclearize and unconditionally open the Strait, while Iran has set up toll booths in the previously free and open Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in Bitcoin to try to bypass the US dollar settlement system. Iran aims to gain living space by controlling this energy choke point, and the US will certainly not sit idly by while its sovereignty is challenged.

The current $73,000 $BTC already includes the rigid buying pressure from the toll booth demands. If the negotiations break down around April 21 in two weeks, and there is again conflict in the Strait, Bitcoin may benefit from safe-haven sentiment; however, if negotiations unexpectedly succeed, the probability of that is relatively low, and the safe-haven premium will quickly fall.
#伊朗拟征收霍尔木兹加密货币通行费

Now $BTC is the global energy settlement currency. If the monthly toll of 800 million dollars must be paid in BTC, it creates a huge, rigid leveraged demand. This violently supported purchasing power is more solid than any institutional entry and is even more frightening.

In the cracks of this era, being awake is more important than being diligent. The US-Iran war has entered its 29th day, and Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. You need to understand that this is not just about a few people dying; energy costs are the most lethal, which means that the rate cut the Federal Reserve originally planned for 2026 may turn into a mirage, or even be forced to continue raising rates to curb inflation. If interest rates rise rather than fall, the stock market and highly leveraged assets will be revalued. If you are fully invested in the market, then you are merely a harvested leek. At a time when liquidity may be exhausted, cash is always king.

Iran has now lost its core leader and is in domestic turmoil; its only bargaining chip is to drag everyone down with it. It does not confront the US military head-on, but rather strikes Saudi oil fields and blocks shipping routes. This will cause the global supply chain to fracture again. The current market has not fully digested the expectation of a 'long-term war'; many still fantasize about peace talks within weeks, which is unrealistic. If peace talks break down and we enter a prolonged war of attrition, the world will enter a 'stagflation' scenario. At this time, all paper wealth will shrink, and only control over energy and underlying productivity will have a voice.

At this juncture in 2026, there are many opportunities to earn 100%, but the risk of losing 100% is greater. During the war, any rumors about 'peace talks' will lead to a market rebound, but as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not truly opened, this rebound is merely a trap for the unwary. Don't waste your bullets in these small cycles. Rogers predicted that 2026 is a year of financial crisis, and it now appears that the US-Iran conflict is most likely the wings of a black swan. The smoke of war will eventually dissipate, but only those who walk out of the smoke with bullets will qualify to share in the post-war dividends. Every bit of restraint now is the compound interest for a future turnaround!
$BTC

$BTC Important Summary

1. Bitcoin has recently risen for eight consecutive days and is now fluctuating between 68700 and 74000. There is heavy selling pressure between 74000 and 76000, with both those previously trapped wanting to break even and those who have made profits wanting to exit. Additionally, MicroStrategy has purchased a considerable amount of Bitcoin near 70194, providing a support level for the market.

2. This week, the Federal Reserve just held a meeting and set a tone. Powell did not release any particularly hawkish remarks, and the market believes there is a high probability of one or two interest rate cuts in the second half of this year. Moreover, Bitcoin seems to be somewhat decoupled from the U.S. stock market's NASDAQ and, at times, resembles gold's movements more closely. The narrative of digital gold is being brought up again. 🤣

3. The energy war is so fierce now, and Bitcoin consumes a massive amount of energy annually. If electricity prices rise, the market will perceive that Bitcoin's costs are also increasing and may gradually be considered a type of “energy synthetic asset.”

4. At the end of the month, there is a hearing in Washington regarding cryptocurrency legislation. If it passes smoothly, the entry of large institutions would be a major positive; however, if it fails again, the market may feel confused due to unmet expectations.

5. Bitcoin is currently in a critical position, neither rising nor falling, supported by institutions below and pressured by selling orders above. Whether it rises or falls next depends on whether good news can come from the regulatory hearing at the end of the month.

#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突

$BTC Eight consecutive rises, is it a bull market or a scam?
Recently, this market has been a bit exhilarating yet somewhat unsettling. When Bitcoin doesn't make a sound, it suddenly surprises everyone with an impressive eight consecutive daily gains. The formation of eight rising candles indicates that a bull market is coming according to technical analysis. Is this a market reversal or just a trap set by the big players to lure you in?

【Sentiment】
Not long ago, there was fighting and inflation, and the sentiment index showed extreme fear, with retail investors buying a large number of short positions at the bottom. As a result, those institutions and whales saw a significant inflow of funds in March, these old foxes specifically picked up corpses below 65000, and then turned it around with an eight consecutive rise, directly creating a short squeeze.

【Technical Analysis】
The eight consecutive rises clearly show that the bulls have taken over the market, and at the key resistance levels, the bears are almost no match for the bulls. The momentum is very strong, a typical signal of trend reversal. The price has now touched the 73000–75000 range, which previously trapped a lot of people in spot trading, equivalent to a dense graveyard. The technical indicators are overbought and overheated, so if a small bearish candle appears without volume in the short term, that's a normal technical adjustment. Don't rush to short.

【Macro Analysis】
Recently, there has been unrest in the Middle East, and logically, during such times, everyone would buy gold as a safe haven. However, gold has not risen this time, indicating that the bullish factors for gold have essentially played out. There has been intermittent capital outflow from gold, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, directly benefits. The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in inflation, while Bitcoin has achieved eight consecutive gains. Bitcoin's ability to resist risk is weak, but it is definitely a good inflation hedge.

So is it a bull market or a scam?
Institutions are investing real money, geopolitical factors are assisting, and the technical formation is indeed beautiful. However, rebounds in a bear market are mostly fleeting glimmers, as the big players first squeeze the shorts, heat up the market, attract retail investors to take over, and then execute a double kill of both long and short positions, leaving the scene gracefully. We estimate that the cost for the market makers in this wave is around 65000, and a significant rebound could be about 20%, with an expected target around 80000. If it can't break above 80000, the next move will be down to the starting point or even lower. At this time, it's important to stay clear-headed; if something feels off, restrain yourself and just watch. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than anything else!
#比特币突破7.5万美元

Buffett's wealth curve is not impressive because of the endpoint of 122.8 billion, but because he has never gone to zero at any point. Many people in the crypto world pursue overnight doubling, while Buffett pursues eternal survival; existence itself is a form of high compound interest.