$BTC 【Bitcoin and Ethereum Deep Observation: The Touchstone of Faith in a Crash】

In the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped from the 100,000 mark to below 90,000, while Ethereum (ETH) has also lost the psychological support level of 3,000 USD, with a chilling atmosphere pervading the market. This seemingly sudden crash is actually the result of a resonance between macro pressure and internal adjustments.

Threefold Pressure Behind the Crash

Firstly, there is the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish surprise.' The probability of a rate cut in December has plummeted from nearly 100% to less than 50%, causing global risk assets to come under collective pressure. Secondly, on-chain data indicates that ancient miners in China continue to sell off, triggering a chain liquidation. Most critically, the technical breakdown—BTC's daily chart has formed a downward structure consistent with the drop from 116300 to 98888, and the medium-term trend has clearly weakened.

Three Major Signals Emerging from the Darkness

However, true turning points often emerge from extreme panic. First, the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has not decreased but increased, reaching a four-month high, indicating that smart money is quietly accumulating. Second, ETH has shown a significant bottom divergence on the four-hour chart, with a technical rebound imminent. Third, many altcoins are beginning to refuse to follow the downward trend, with signs of capital rotation starting to appear.

Two Major Catalysts to Watch

The December ETH upgrade has entered the countdown, and historical data shows that the previous upgrade led to a 300% increase. Meanwhile, leading DeFi projects like AAVE are igniting a 'traditional financial revolution,' launching savings products with an annualized rate of 9% directly challenging banks—these innovations are the true foundational values of the blockchain industry.

How Should Investors Respond?

In the short term, the market needs to stabilize above BTC 93,000 and ETH 3,100 to confirm a reversal. However, for long-term investors, this may be a golden area for dollar-cost averaging. It is noteworthy that while retail investors are cutting losses, institutions are continuing to build positions—this cognitive disparity often generates the greatest returns.

The market always progresses in cycles. Every squat is for a more powerful jump next time. While most people are still lost in panic, a few have already seen: the real bull market quietly reborn amid skepticism. $ETH