Missed the last bull market? 2026 may be the last chance to get on board!
I believe the cryptocurrency bull market cycle has not yet ended, and the current market is in a typical mid-cycle consolidation phase. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences its main rally 18-24 months after each halving. Considering the most recent halving completed in April 2024, only about 19 months have passed, and the real market explosion may still be forthcoming.
Current market characteristics show a clear adjustment trend:
- Bitcoin is oscillating around the $100,000 mark
- Major altcoins have generally fallen about 80% from their highs
- Market panic sentiment continues to spread
- Leverage in the derivatives market has significantly decreased
These performances closely match the mid-cycle adjustment characteristics seen in previous bull markets. It is worth noting that the market fundamentals and liquidity continue to provide strong support for the subsequent market:
1. Institutional funds continue to flow in, with Bitcoin spot ETF holdings accounting for about 6% of circulating supply
2. Regulatory policies are becoming clearer, creating better conditions for institutional entry
3. Global liquidity expectations are improving, highlighting the value of risk asset allocation
4. Innovative fields such as AI and RWA continue to attract funding attention
Risks to be vigilant about include a global economic slowdown probability of about 30%, as well as potential systemic risk events. However, as long as these major risks do not occur substantively, the fundamental logic of the bull market remains valid.
My judgment on the subsequent trends is as follows:
- Currently in the mid-cycle stage of a bull market
- Bitcoin is expected to challenge higher price levels within the cycle
- The market will present structural opportunities, with a growing divergence between high-quality assets and ordinary projects
- The main driving force of the market may shift from retail investors to institutional funds
At this stage, it is particularly important to maintain patience and rationality. Historical experience shows that investors who can hold firm during market downturns often reap substantial rewards in subsequent market rallies. The cyclical nature of the market has never changed; the key is to persist long enough in the right direction.
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