Back to the point:
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to establish a policy for tokenized collateral, expected to be released early next year. This policy may allow the use of stablecoins as acceptable tokenized collateral in the derivatives market, potentially starting with a pilot program at U.S. clearinghouses and implementing stricter regulations that require more disclosures. CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham confirmed media reports that the agency is directly consulting with regulated platforms, planning to launch cryptocurrency spot trading, including leveraged products, as early as next month. Pham has held talks with several designated contract markets (DCMs) under CFTC regulation, including financial giants CME, Cboe Futures Exchange, and ICE Futures Exchange. Before Congress formally grants the CFTC clear regulatory authority over the crypto spot market, Pham has chosen to utilize existing provisions in the Commodity Exchange Act. Pham stated: Continue to work with Congress to bring legislative clarity to these markets while implementing relevant recommendations from the President's Working Group on Financial Markets report.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated: 21Shares has submitted a new 8(a) form to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, intending to issue its XRP spot ETF. This application will go through a 20-day review period. Data from Ultrasoundmoney shows that the net supply of ETH increased by 74,298 ETH in the past 30 days, with a supply increase of about 84,069 ETH and approximately 9,770 ETH burned, resulting in an annual growth rate of 0.747%. FTX creditor representative Sunil stated that the total assets available for FTX to pay creditors before repayment are between $16 billion to $17 billion, with the total repayment amount currently reaching $7.1 billion. The next repayment is expected to take place in January 2026. Matrixport stated: This round of pullback has approached the value-for-money range, with the RSI recently dipping to 35. Historically, technical buying tends to become active near this level, but sustainability still needs macro catalyst verification. Short-term catalysts include: the U.S. government shutdown is expected to be resolved this week, and Trump may issue approximately $2,000 in stimulus checks to the public, reminiscent of the wave driven by checks in 2020-2021. Relying solely on the aforementioned catalysts is insufficient to drive a trend reversal; a resonance verification between capital and fundamentals is still needed.
Analyst Matthew Hyland stated that the reason for the altcoin confidence is because the BTC dominance chart looks very weak and has been weak for several weeks. The BTC dominance has dropped 5% since May. The altcoin market may soon gain momentum, but other indicators still show that the market focus remains on BTC. The CMC altcoin season index is currently only 28/100. Analyst Chloe: The Fed announced that it will end its balance sheet reduction starting in December and reinvest maturing MBS funds into short-term Treasury bonds, signaling liquidity release. If the government shutdown ends and economic data recovers, the Fed may consider restarting quantitative easing (QE) early next year to address weak demand for U.S. Treasuries and the risk of high yields. The subsequent policy direction will depend on the results of fiscal negotiations and the December interest rate meeting. Last week, U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw a cumulative outflow of $1.2084 billion, while ETH spot ETFs had a cumulative outflow of $507.7 million. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated: The Solana ETF (BSOL) has seen over $500 million in inflows in the past eight days since its launch. Bit Digital (BTBT) increased its holdings by 31,057.3 ETH in October, holding about 153,546.9 ETH valued at approximately $590.5 million as of October 31, 2025.
JPMorgan's 13F-HR holdings document submitted to the SEC shows that as of the end of the third quarter, the bank held $343 million in BlackRock's BTC spot ETF IBIT, an increase of 64% since the end of June, and held $102 million in shares of ETH reserve company Bitmine. Bitmine currently holds over 3.24 million ETH. The U.S. Senate has approved a procedural vote on the "end government shutdown plan." Fox reporter Chad Pergram stated: The Senate may reach an agreement and vote as early as tomorrow, with the House planning to address the bill on Wednesday. Considering the situation in the Senate, the final vote may not have much suspense. The Hill reported: If the Democrats choose to extend these debates, the U.S. government may not reopen until Wednesday or Thursday, but if they hurry, the "end government shutdown" process could be completed tonight, allowing the government to reopen tomorrow night. Current obstruction rules may significantly affect the timeline. Trump called for an end to the U.S. government shutdown, stating: It appears to be getting closer to ending the "shutdown" and should terminate the lengthy debate, end the government shutdown, and pass many bills. Trump stated that he would provide at least $2,000 in aid to most people (excluding high-income groups).
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated, "America has begun to do what it does best again, printing money, and the record government shutdown is about to end." The Pomp Letter author Pomp: If Trump really issues $2,000 to citizens, it will release powerful liquidity into the market. Fed's Williams: The Fed decided last week to stop reducing its bond holdings, and it may soon need to expand its balance sheet through bond purchases. Fed Governor Mylan: A 50 basis point rate cut in December is appropriate, with at least a 25 basis point cut. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: Substantial progress has been made in controlling inflation, and prices are expected to fall in the coming months. Bloomberg: A group of moderate senators has agreed to support a funding agreement to reopen the federal government and provide funding for certain departments and agencies for the next year. On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq index up 2% during the session, the S&P 500 index up 1.3%, and gold up 2.5% to $4,100/ounce; BTC rose by 2%, and ETH rose by 0.6%. Goldman Sachs believes: The recent 5% pullback in the U.S. stock market is a typical year-end seasonal fluctuation in the cycle, and there is still room for upward movement before the end of the year. A 5% decline at this time of year is normal in this cycle, and overall, it is not excessive. JPMorgan: It is expected that the S&P 500 index may soon break through the 7,000-point mark, with economic growth and corporate profits remaining strong and macro headwinds gradually fading. The reopening of the U.S. government may release liquidity, pushing up the prices of risk assets, and the overall bullish pattern remains solid.
U.S. House Speaker Johnson: "I believe there are enough votes to pass the temporary funding bill. After the Senate vote ends, the House will be called back to Washington. The 'nightmare' is finally coming to an end." As the market expresses optimism about the imminent agreement to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market are recovering. The Fed may begin to expand its asset size through bond purchases in the first quarter of next year. After the U.S. government reopens, fiscal spending stimulus and the Fed's balance sheet expansion will make external liquidity appear increasingly abundant. Ironically, the cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a repression period, with concerns about an "independent bear market," and sentiment is awaiting improvement. At this time, it is necessary to consider whether this cryptocurrency bear market can be sustained or whether it will follow the mainstream market for a liquidity-driven bull run. Hope for a smooth recovery.
