The U.S. September non-farm data will be released tonight at 21:30.
The September non-farm data, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, will be released tonight at 21:30 (UTC+8). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has previously completed data collection and statistical work, and the shutdown did not cause systemic impacts on data quality. The macro data being released includes the September unemployment rate, September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, and initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15.
glassnode: Bitcoin has broken through key levels, and market structure is under test.
On November 20, glassnode pointed out in its weekly market observation article that Bitcoin has fallen below the STH cost basis and the -1STD range, with recent buyers under pressure. The $95,000-$97,000 area has become a key resistance level. If it can break through this area again, it would be an early signal of market structure recovery.
Spot demand is weak, with negative capital inflow for US spot ETFs, and TradFi asset allocators have not increased buying. Speculative leverage is decreasing, and the open interest in futures for the top 500 assets has reduced, with financing rates dropping to cyclical lows. The options market is repricing risk, with implied volatility rising, and traders are paying high premiums for downside risk protection.
Glassnode believes that this decline continues the moderate bear market trend, and the future direction of the market depends on whether demand can recover near the key cost price.
Santiment: This week, Bitcoin whale transactions may hit a new high since 2025.
Santiment data shows that Bitcoin whales have been very active during the price decline over the past six weeks, with over 102,900 transactions worth over $100,000 this week, and more than 29,000 transactions worth over $1 million. Santiment states that this week may become the most active week for whale transactions since 2025.
On-chain data:
Whether it is a bear market is more evident in the VIX data. The VIX represents the level of market panic. Generally, a VIX value above 30 for a long time indicates a bear market, while a panic index below 18 often represents a relaxed investor sentiment, indicating a bull market. Currently, it is long-term between 18 and 30, indicating that investor sentiment is very tense but has not reached a state of extreme panic.
The current time is very similar to January and February of this year. The following may panic like in April, which was due to Trump's tariff policy and China-US trade issues. Then there was a major panic in mid-October, primarily due to the standstill, and since then, there have been no signs of continuing above 30.
It's hard to predict what will happen in the future, but from the current perspective, at least the US stock market does not seem to have completely entered a bear market like it did in 2022.
The daily structure of Bitcoin is still clearly bearish in this market, although there has been some rebound, it is merely a corrective move after a significant decline. There has been no strong demand entering, nor has there been a breakthrough of the previous high point to change the market structure. This means that as long as the daily line is below 96000, the overall rhythm is bearish. The structure has not changed, and any rebound is merely a corrective move, more for the purpose of washing out positions, transitioning from a vertical decline to horizontal consolidation.
Yesterday afternoon, I laid out a short position at 91000, and the market retraced to the target position of 89000 in the early morning, successfully capturing a drop of 2000 points. The benefit of being a super member is that no matter how late it is, the big bull will think of you and timely remind you to take profit on your trades.
This consolidation can be rectangular, triangular, wedge-shaped, or irregular, etc., but remember that as long as there is no solid breakthrough above the previous high point, treat it as a continuation pattern. The market can consolidate for two weeks, but the trend will still be downward to refresh the lows next month. A rebound in a trending market is not a bad thing, but rather a better and higher opportunity to enter short positions. Importantly, 80% of reversals will fail.
The small level is also quite obvious, with multiple divergences leading to corrective rebounds, and the most concerned resistance during the day is in the 93500-94000 area. If this level is tested today and shows signs of stagnation, false breakout, long upper shadow engulfing, etc., short positions can be considered. If it breaks and holds above, it may lead to a wave of hourly W-bottom rebound. Then, if the hourly structure changes, it can pull back slightly and look for opportunities to go long again.
Ethereum quickly retracted after touching the 2880 support during the night, indicating buying support. The daily line maintains an oversold rebound above, and the bearish momentum at the four-hour level is weakening, with expectations for a rebound during the day. Attention is on the resistance at 3150/3250 above.
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