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BTC Daily Death Cross
Today, looking at the daily line for $BTC , the 50-day moving average has officially crossed below the 200-day moving average, which is commonly referred to as a "death cross." This kind of signal typically makes people anxious, but I went through the daily lines from 2015 to now and found 12 similar occurrences. I then categorized them based on the price position at the time of the cross, and the patterns are quite interesting.
The first category represents the majority of cases: when the cross occurs, the price is not at a new low, meaning it is either in the midst of a rebound or has ended a rebound and is moving down again, but has not yet broken below the previous low. This situation occurred a total of 9 times, with the results leaning towards continued decline; only 4 times did it subsequently rise, while the other 5 times continued to extend the downward trend. In simple terms: when not crossing below a low → the probability of moving down is greater.
The second category is quite different: it occurred 3 times when the price was already near a low at the time of the cross, even reaching a new low in this round of decline, and then making another new low within 0–2 candlesticks after the cross. The subsequent movements in these 3 instances were all upward and very consistent. The MA50 tends to cross back above the MA200 after about 42 trading days, and the price is expected to break above the previous high after about 50 trading days. In other words: when a death cross occurs at a new low, it is more likely to lead to a significant rebound.
In this case, on 2025/11/16, the MA50 breaking below the MA200 coincidentally corresponds to a new low in this round of decline, which also aligns with the characteristics of the second category.
In other words, from a historical statistical perspective, this death cross is not necessarily a bad thing; rather, it could be a precursor signal leading to a rebound structure. Of course, how things ultimately unfold will depend on market structure, but based on the pattern itself, this type of cross tends to favor subsequent rebounds upward.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
Today, looking at the daily line for $BTC , the 50-day moving average has officially crossed below the 200-day moving average, which is commonly referred to as a "death cross." This kind of signal typically makes people anxious, but I went through the daily lines from 2015 to now and found 12 similar occurrences. I then categorized them based on the price position at the time of the cross, and the patterns are quite interesting.
The first category represents the majority of cases: when the cross occurs, the price is not at a new low, meaning it is either in the midst of a rebound or has ended a rebound and is moving down again, but has not yet broken below the previous low. This situation occurred a total of 9 times, with the results leaning towards continued decline; only 4 times did it subsequently rise, while the other 5 times continued to extend the downward trend. In simple terms: when not crossing below a low → the probability of moving down is greater.
The second category is quite different: it occurred 3 times when the price was already near a low at the time of the cross, even reaching a new low in this round of decline, and then making another new low within 0–2 candlesticks after the cross. The subsequent movements in these 3 instances were all upward and very consistent. The MA50 tends to cross back above the MA200 after about 42 trading days, and the price is expected to break above the previous high after about 50 trading days. In other words: when a death cross occurs at a new low, it is more likely to lead to a significant rebound.
In this case, on 2025/11/16, the MA50 breaking below the MA200 coincidentally corresponds to a new low in this round of decline, which also aligns with the characteristics of the second category.
In other words, from a historical statistical perspective, this death cross is not necessarily a bad thing; rather, it could be a precursor signal leading to a rebound structure. Of course, how things ultimately unfold will depend on market structure, but based on the pattern itself, this type of cross tends to favor subsequent rebounds upward.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
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