🚨 $ETH $BNB $BTC — Tonight Could Trigger the Next Major Crypto Swing
If the market felt shaky last night, you weren’t imagining it. The newly released Fed minutes show something extremely rare: the Fed is openly split, directionless, and tense. And whenever traditional finance loses its footing, crypto is usually the first to react.
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🔥 1. The October minutes show the Fed is completely divided
• One camp wants a 25bps rate cut in December if the data lines up.
• Another group thinks the Fed should hold rates steady for now (and in Fed language, “many” outweighs “several”).
• Extreme ends of the spectrum argued for either a bold 50bps cut or no cuts at all.
This is the most disagreement we’ve seen inside the Fed all year.
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⚠️ 2. A 44-day data blackout has left policymakers basically guessing
Because of the extended government shutdown, the Fed is operating with missing information:
• No October employment report
• September jobs data delayed by over a month
• No updated GDP release
• Incomplete inflation data
They’re making policy without visibility — something markets absolutely hate.
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📉 3. Rate-cut expectations dropped immediately after the minutes
Right after the release:
• December rate-cut odds fell from about 50% to under 30%
• Odds of keeping rates unchanged jumped to nearly 70%
• Swap pricing dropped from 11bps to around 6bps
This uncertainty spilled into markets, and crypto moved right with it.
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⚡ 4. Labour market signals are turning negative
• Only 17k new jobs in September (vs. 50k forecast)
• Ongoing jobless claims spiked by 40k
• Layoff announcements are accelerating
A softening labour market usually brings weaker growth and more volatility.
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🎯 5. Tonight’s data release could swing the entire market
The delayed September non-farm payrolls report finally comes out tonight:
• Expected jobs added: 50,000
• Expected unemployment rate: 4.3%
This is the only fresh economic data we’ll get before the next Fed meeting.
