金先生聊MEME
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Bearish
$ETH $BNB $TNSR Unexpectedly High Non-Farm Payrolls of 119,000 Ignite Market Sentiment! Fed Rate Cut in December Unlikely, Yet US Stocks Rally?
Traders' Bets on a December Rate Cut Plunge from 43% to 35%
In short: US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and wage growth slowed. Following the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December plummeted, yet US stocks unexpectedly surged, and the bond market also secretly rejoiced—the market is divided!
🔥 Key Data Highlights:
• Job Creation: 119,000 (expected 50,000), highest since April
• Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (expected 4.3%), highest since October 2021
• Hourly Wage Growth: 0.2% month-over-month, 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations
• Industry Highlights: Healthcare, food service, and social assistance led the growth; transportation and warehousing, and government sectors lagged behind
📉 Is a December rate cut by the Fed in doubt?
* Swap Market: Traders' bets on a December rate cut plummeted from 43% to 35%
* Internal Divisions:
* 🕊️ Doves: Concerned about declining employment, they call for further rate cuts.
* 🦅 Hawks: Warning of inflation risks, they oppose too rapid easing.
* Powell's Dilemma: Unveiling a "blind box" of data; the December meeting could become a "hawk-dove battleground."
* 🎭 Market Segmentation:
* US Stocks: Dow futures rose 1%, Nasdaq futures surged over 2%—the economy is stable, so celebrate!
* Bond Market: US Treasury yields fell, wage growth slowed—inflation is on the horizon, and hopes for rate cuts remain!
* Expert Commentary:
"This data puts the Fed in a dilemma: employment is strong enough to not need intervention, but the rising unemployment rate makes them hesitant to ignore it."
* Unignorable Underlying Signals:
* First Data Release Since Government Shutdown: September's Economy Was Surprisingly Strong! * October Non-Farm Payrolls Disappear: Labor Bureau Stops Publishing... Fed's December Meeting a Complete "Bare-Handed Test"
* Is AI Taking Jobs?: Unemployment Rate Rises, But Participation Rate Also Increases—Is AI to Blame?
💡 What to Watch Next?
* December Fed Meeting: An "Intuition-Based Meeting" Without Data Reference—Watch How Powell "Blindly" Delivers
* Trump's Fed: Powell's Term is About to End; If a Dovish Leader Takes Over Next Year, Rate Cuts May Be Delayed but Not Absent
* Market Strategy: Stable Economy + Explosive AI Growth—US Stocks Can Still Rally! Don't Take It Lightly
"One report, two interpretations—the market revels in the division, while the Federal Reserve struggles amidst the data fog."
Traders' Bets on a December Rate Cut Plunge from 43% to 35%
In short: US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, far exceeding the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and wage growth slowed. Following the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December plummeted, yet US stocks unexpectedly surged, and the bond market also secretly rejoiced—the market is divided!
🔥 Key Data Highlights:
• Job Creation: 119,000 (expected 50,000), highest since April
• Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (expected 4.3%), highest since October 2021
• Hourly Wage Growth: 0.2% month-over-month, 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations
• Industry Highlights: Healthcare, food service, and social assistance led the growth; transportation and warehousing, and government sectors lagged behind
📉 Is a December rate cut by the Fed in doubt?
* Swap Market: Traders' bets on a December rate cut plummeted from 43% to 35%
* Internal Divisions:
* 🕊️ Doves: Concerned about declining employment, they call for further rate cuts.
* 🦅 Hawks: Warning of inflation risks, they oppose too rapid easing.
* Powell's Dilemma: Unveiling a "blind box" of data; the December meeting could become a "hawk-dove battleground."
* 🎭 Market Segmentation:
* US Stocks: Dow futures rose 1%, Nasdaq futures surged over 2%—the economy is stable, so celebrate!
* Bond Market: US Treasury yields fell, wage growth slowed—inflation is on the horizon, and hopes for rate cuts remain!
* Expert Commentary:
"This data puts the Fed in a dilemma: employment is strong enough to not need intervention, but the rising unemployment rate makes them hesitant to ignore it."
* Unignorable Underlying Signals:
* First Data Release Since Government Shutdown: September's Economy Was Surprisingly Strong! * October Non-Farm Payrolls Disappear: Labor Bureau Stops Publishing... Fed's December Meeting a Complete "Bare-Handed Test"
* Is AI Taking Jobs?: Unemployment Rate Rises, But Participation Rate Also Increases—Is AI to Blame?
💡 What to Watch Next?
* December Fed Meeting: An "Intuition-Based Meeting" Without Data Reference—Watch How Powell "Blindly" Delivers
* Trump's Fed: Powell's Term is About to End; If a Dovish Leader Takes Over Next Year, Rate Cuts May Be Delayed but Not Absent
* Market Strategy: Stable Economy + Explosive AI Growth—US Stocks Can Still Rally! Don't Take It Lightly
"One report, two interpretations—the market revels in the division, while the Federal Reserve struggles amidst the data fog."
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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