Bluechip
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Few, if any, Bitcoin bull run cycle indicators triggered this cycle.
It's important to note, however, that several bear market indicators did trigger, such as:
• BTC closed below the 50-week moving average (likely closing twice in a row below it, coming this Sunday. This historically has marked the start of a bear market.)
• The "death cross" (normally marks bottoms) did not mark a bottom this time. This is a bear market behavior. It did the same thing (not bouncing) in Jan 2022 when that bear market was just getting going.
• From a timing perspective, it's been basically the same cycle length (4 years, also in Q4 every time) as it has been with every cycle thus far.
This cycle has been unusual, for sure. We never got a euphoric, blow-off-top or any of the traditional bull topping signals, but we did get some bear market siginals triggering.
So, it's looking (so far) like I got it wrong when I thought the most likely outcome would be a top in December/January.
It's possible this is what happens going forward:
We get a bear market with a smaller drop than usual (50% drop instead of 70% drop?), followed by a pump along with the timing of the ISM (business cycle), starting in mid-to-late 2026 when the bear market ends, and peaking in 2027 (just a guess) accompanied with actual euphoria and an actual blow-off top. This would make sense as it will be when people actually have money to throw into risk assets.
See ISM chart below.
#BTCVolatility
• BTC closed below the 50-week moving average (likely closing twice in a row below it, coming this Sunday. This historically has marked the start of a bear market.)
• The "death cross" (normally marks bottoms) did not mark a bottom this time. This is a bear market behavior. It did the same thing (not bouncing) in Jan 2022 when that bear market was just getting going.
• From a timing perspective, it's been basically the same cycle length (4 years, also in Q4 every time) as it has been with every cycle thus far.
This cycle has been unusual, for sure. We never got a euphoric, blow-off-top or any of the traditional bull topping signals, but we did get some bear market siginals triggering.
So, it's looking (so far) like I got it wrong when I thought the most likely outcome would be a top in December/January.
It's possible this is what happens going forward:
We get a bear market with a smaller drop than usual (50% drop instead of 70% drop?), followed by a pump along with the timing of the ISM (business cycle), starting in mid-to-late 2026 when the bear market ends, and peaking in 2027 (just a guess) accompanied with actual euphoria and an actual blow-off top. This would make sense as it will be when people actually have money to throw into risk assets.
See ISM chart below.
#BTCVolatility
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