Everyone, this week I deeply researched several popular projects and discovered a phenomenon: the market focus is shifting towards prediction markets.
After researching several leading projects, I gained some new insights into this sector, and today I want to discuss it with you all.
It's not just talk; it's purely learning.
1️⃣📊 Huge change in the landscape: The leader changed hands in just one month
October's Landscape:
Polymarket remains firmly in first place, with no competitors
Other projects are catching up
November's Landscape:
Opinion's trading volume surged to first place (1.46 billion USD/week)
Kalshi's funding amount is quickly catching up to Polymarket
Limitless has emerged strongly
The whole track has entered a fierce competition
In one month, the pattern has completely changed. The speed of change in this track is much faster than expected.
2️⃣🎯 What do ordinary players care most about?
After researching so many projects, I thought from the perspective of an ordinary user, what is most important in playing the prediction market?
1. The experience must be good
✅ Just connect your wallet and play, don’t complicate operations
✅ Low fees, don’t let gas fees be higher than profits
✅ User-friendly interface, don’t make it feel like coding
2. It’s best to have airdrops
✅ Clear point plan
✅ Clear expectations for airdrops
✅ Early participation has rewards
These two points, Polymarket has not done well at all.
Instead, Opinion and Limitless are doing better:
Opinion: BSC ecosystem, Binance users can play directly, plus a points system
Limitless: Base chain, fast speed and low fees, also has a points plan
This also explains why Opinion could rise to the top so quickly - it’s not just that the product is good, but the ecosystem and incentives are also in place.
3️⃣🏆 Who can win in the future? My judgment
Looking now, there are two truly competitive ones: Kalshi and Opinion
Advantages of Kalshi:
Compliant and regulated by CFTC, legal and compliant
Can walk a longer road
Regulatory risk is minimal
Suitable for institutions and large funds
Problems with Kalshi:
Average experience
No token incentives
Slow growth rate
Advantages of Opinion:
Ecosystem + incentives
BSC ecosystem, Binance users can seamlessly access
Point system, early users have rewards
Fast growth rate, already the number one in trading volume
Technological innovation (AI oracle)
Problems with Opinion:
Too new, unstable
Regulatory risk is high
4️⃣🎮 Advice for everyone
If you want to play the prediction market:
My advice: small bets for pleasure, big bets can be harmful.
The best way: experience each platform once.
Opinion - Experience BSC ecosystem, earn points
Limitless - experience the fast market, earn points
Kalshi - experience the compliant version, see how the regular army plays
Polymarket - experience the established leader, best liquidity
After playing a round, you will know which is good and which is not.
Specific operational suggestions:
💰 Invest 100-500U in each platform, don’t put in too much
🎯 Choose large market trades, don’t play small markets (easy to manipulate)
🎁 Complete point tasks, earn airdrops with low cost
📊 Record your experience, note down which one is useful
🚫 Don’t get too excited, run after winning, don’t think about doubling
5️⃣💭 Finally, let me say a few words
My feeling about the prediction market track is:
✅ The track is real - there is demand, there is growth
❌ Competition is too fierce - new projects emerge endlessly
⚠️ Regulation is a variable - it could be suppressed at any time
🎲 The essence is gambling - don’t treat it as an investment, just play
For us ordinary players:
Do not heavily invest in any one platform
Try more to find what suits you best
Earn points, wait for airdrops, participate with low cost
Play with small amounts, don’t treat it as gambling
Remember:
The prediction market is a tool, not a belief. Don’t be proud when you win, and don’t get too excited when you lose.
Folks, which prediction market are you playing?
How is the experience? Let’s chat in the comments 👇
