The risk of an imminent shutdown of the USA government, scheduled for January 31, 2026, has triggered a new wave of tension in the cryptocurrency market.
Stalemate in the Senate: Despite the House approving a funding package of $1.2 trillion, Senate Democrats are threatening to block the bill due to the funds allocated to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
Social tensions: The opposition is linked to the management of ICE and recent incidents involving federal agents in Minnesota.
High probability: Prediction platforms like
#Polymarket and
#Kalshi currently estimate a probability of #shutdown between 75% and 78%
Crisis sentiment: Uncertainty has pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index towards the "Extreme Fear" zone, reflecting investors' fear of a potential liquidity contraction.
Prices declining: In the last 24 hours,
#bitcoin has fallen below $88,000. Also,
#Ethereum and
#xrp have recorded significant losses (XRP -4%) while traders are monitoring key support levels.
Correlation with macro data: A shutdown would suspend the publication of inflation and employment data, leaving the Federal Reserve and markets "in the dark" just ahead of this week's interest rate decision.
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