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Crazy Hami
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A Federal Reserve official is urging people not to read too much into November’s inflation data at face value. Hamarck pointed out that disruptions caused by the government shutdown in October and early November may have interfered with how the data was collected, potentially making inflation look softer than it really is. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.7% year-over-year rise in the Consumer Price Index, she suggested that once these measurement challenges are factored in, inflation is likely closer to what many economists expected—around 2.9% to 3.0%. She also struck a cautious tone on interest rate cuts. According to Hamarck, the so-called neutral interest rate—the point where rates neither boost nor restrain economic activity—may be higher than markets currently assume. From her perspective, the economy still has enough momentum to grow steadily into next year. While the neutral rate can’t be pinned down precisely, she emphasized that it becomes clearer when viewed through the lens of overall economic conditions.
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