分析师董势涨
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Many people like to bottom fish, or rather say they like to bottom fish in advance, but in the end, they either suffer losses or face liquidation.
To be honest, I've talked about this topic many times. Do not blindly bottom fish before confirming a structural change, and absolutely do not start trading spot. Once the direction is wrong or if the market is bearish, it could take several years to recover. Yet many people just don't listen, resulting in losses and liquidation. Just like the recent 98000, there are many misleading voices in the market telling you that 98000 is the bottom, the fear index is already very low, and that there are hundreds of billions in short positions that need to be hunted, so it will definitely rise. The biggest flaw in this logic is treating a bearish market as a mere washout, without being realistic based on the actual market conditions, completely treating indicators as direction. If the market is bearish, all indicators above are normalized and cannot serve as a reference for bottom fishing.
In fact, whether or not it is the bottom, there is no need to look at so-called indicators, because there are many clear signals. If you want to confirm a structural change, at least there will not be lower lows, and it will challenge higher highs. If you say there has been no stop in the decline and no successful challenge of the previous resistance level, how can there be a reversal?
Secondly, when the main force enters, there will at least be some bottom fishing actions. When entering the market, it is usually with a large volume, and then a bottom will be formed, which will involve a process of oscillation and washout at the bottom. During the pullback, the volume is usually reduced, indicating that the main force is not distributing. You can continue with long positions. A significant drop in volume indicates that further declines are needed, and at that time, you should not continue to enter long positions.
To be honest, I've talked about this topic many times. Do not blindly bottom fish before confirming a structural change, and absolutely do not start trading spot. Once the direction is wrong or if the market is bearish, it could take several years to recover. Yet many people just don't listen, resulting in losses and liquidation. Just like the recent 98000, there are many misleading voices in the market telling you that 98000 is the bottom, the fear index is already very low, and that there are hundreds of billions in short positions that need to be hunted, so it will definitely rise. The biggest flaw in this logic is treating a bearish market as a mere washout, without being realistic based on the actual market conditions, completely treating indicators as direction. If the market is bearish, all indicators above are normalized and cannot serve as a reference for bottom fishing.
In fact, whether or not it is the bottom, there is no need to look at so-called indicators, because there are many clear signals. If you want to confirm a structural change, at least there will not be lower lows, and it will challenge higher highs. If you say there has been no stop in the decline and no successful challenge of the previous resistance level, how can there be a reversal?
Secondly, when the main force enters, there will at least be some bottom fishing actions. When entering the market, it is usually with a large volume, and then a bottom will be formed, which will involve a process of oscillation and washout at the bottom. During the pullback, the volume is usually reduced, indicating that the main force is not distributing. You can continue with long positions. A significant drop in volume indicates that further declines are needed, and at that time, you should not continue to enter long positions.
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