In this round of market trends, if we really say it's a bull market, it doesn't quite feel that way.

It feels more like the medium to high-level market of 2019, not particularly strong.

Look at it now, it resembles that time a lot: altcoins are basically stagnant, and Bitcoin is the only one rising. As a result, later on, the country suddenly banned mining, and when the black swan hit, the market directly collapsed.

Bitcoin was directly halved, and altcoins fared even worse; they hardly rose at all and ended up plummeting to almost nothing.

That was real panic; in the groups I joined, many people just quit the game altogether.

If we really do turn bearish now, I think this bear market shouldn't last too long.

Look at the last two major bear markets; they were both due to the Federal Reserve tightening policies, with QT (Quantitative Tightening) either already happening or about to happen. There's no money in the market, and those who made money want to flee, constantly selling.

All coins began to decline after a crazy surge, and at that time, ninety percent of altcoins had risen at least 20 times.

But what about now? We are already in a rate-cutting cycle, QT is about to end, liquidity hasn't fully opened up yet, but it's on the way.

So I think, even if we do enter a bear market, it won't be as deep or as frightening as the last two times.

In extreme cases, Bitcoin might drop to the last dense trading area, probably in the range of 83,000 to 75,000.

Also, bear markets don't drop every day; there will definitely be rebounds in between. Once altcoins rebound, their amplitude is usually more intense than Bitcoin's.

So what we should do now is probably to pick a few reliable altcoins (like $HYPE , $SOL , etc.), set up a position, and wait to cash in when the rebound comes.