Crypto bull runs have always depended on waves of optimism, but in late 2025, mood turned bleak as prices retraced and sentiment hit record lows. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to levels not seen since the 2022 bear, with retail traders “emotionally out” and social channels full of exit chatter. But price history suggests the greatest rallies often follow such capitulation—when those who stay are the least popular, but usually the most patient.
At this juncture, institutional presence is the key structural difference from past cycles. Spot ETF launches, asset tokenization rails, regulated custodians, and sandbox projects by central banks are now active. These players need flows for months and quarters, not weeks—which means short-term corrections, while painful, don’t necessarily derail longer-term accumulation.
Recent ETF flow data shows volatility: some weeks saw historic outflows, but overall, annual inflows are still record-breaking as large asset allocators re-enter after declines. Banks like Goldman and BNY Mellon are piloting tokenized funds, and the sandbox approach promises breakthroughs for compliant international trading
What’s fading fast is the old “four-year cycle” logic. Analysts and industry insiders now argue that institutional build-out and tokenization are creating a multi-year adoption wave, with consolidations instead of classic blow-off tops. This means periods of stagnation—like now—may actually be part of a healthier maturation pattern.
Long-term focus should be on watching which institutions keep adding to size, new pilots for tokenized assets, regulatory advancements, and how ETF flows recover after down weeks. Most experts and market historians now project Q1-Q2 2026 as a prime window for the next leg—not a “dead” bull market, just an extended intermission before the major players move the market again.