Bitcoin demand dramatically outpaces new supply: Daily buying (ETFs, institutions, treasury companies, tactical traders) is estimated at 4–6× the amount of Bitcoin being mined post-halving.
Sellers are still providing liquidity, but many believe we are in a “waiting game” until willing sellers dry up or decide to stop selling → this supply/demand imbalance is expected to push price significantly higher once exhausted.
This cycle feels very different: smaller drawdowns (no 30-35% crashes like previous cycles), methodical grinding higher, and much stronger hands absorbing dips.
Retail Participation
Surprisingly low retail involvement so far (evident from Google Trends, exchange sign-ups, etc.).
This is probably the last time to buy Bitcoin at six-digit prices.” Retail tends to pile in later at higher prices when confidence is obvious (classic human psychology).
The Four-Year Halving Cycle
Adam believes cycles will continue but may not line up exactly with past ones.
Two reinforcing effects:
Halving shock (still real, because the % reduction should be measured against liquid/float supply, not total supply; more coins are moving into cold storage every cycle → “HODL waves”).
Growing realization that long-term holding + DCA beats trading.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies
Seen as genuine capital-market innovation: raise fiat buy Bitcoin use volatility premium in equity/debt to buy even more Bitcoin repeat.
Act as “shock absorbers” for Bitcoin price: when BTC dips, their share price may fall but they don’t sell the underlying Bitcoin.
Pure-play treasury companies (MSTR, etc.) currently trade below NAV because of heavy shorting, but active management + operating businesses underneath will likely be rewarded longer term.
Adam’s new company (B*) raised mostly in Bitcoin from Bitcoiners and aims to be a Berkshire Hathaway–style permanent capital vehicle that actively grows BTC per share.
OGs Selling
Surprising that so many early adopters are selling at this stage — price and time-from-ATH feel early compared to previous cycles.
Many who sell now may FOMO back in later if the old halving pattern appears broken.
Nation-States Accumulating Bitcoin
Two-sided view:
Positive: Shows governments are finally “open for business” instead of fighting it.
Ironic: “Everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve” governments deserve 7- or 8-figure prices.
Better for individuals if governments stay slow and give people more time to stack.
Long-Term Vision
Bitcoin is the new “hurdle rate” for all investment: any fund, company, or asset that can’t beat long-term Bitcoin returns should shut down or just hold Bitcoin.
Eventually “every company becomes a Bitcoin company” (treasury allocation becomes standard).
Bitcoin is revolutionary because it is the first major tech wave where individuals got a 10–15 year head start on institutions and governments.
Self-Custody & Financial Sovereignty
Strong emphasis: not-your-keys-not-your-coins still matters more than ever.
Bearer Bitcoin that isn’t KYC’d or visible on traditional finance ledgers is the ultimate insurance policy (“a Swiss bank account in your pocket”).
Bitcoin allows individuals to re-assert property rights that have been eroded under fiat and increasing financial surveillance.
Co-existence with Central Banks
Adam is now more optimistic than a few years ago.
Bitcoin changes incentives of everyone it touches — even politicians and central bankers eventually learn why hard, bearer money matters (e.g., Trump family debanking experience).
Geopolitical axis is shifting from gold → oil → Bitcoin/energy+chips.
Fun Anecdote
Adam still jokes about his old 21 million BTC buy order at 2 cents ($420k total) on Bitfinex in the early days — obviously never filled, but illustrates how unthinkable a total collapse to zero really is.
Bottom Line from Adam Back
We’re still early. Demand is structural and growing, supply shocks are compounding, retail hasn’t even shown up yet, and the people/institutions buying now are overwhelmingly long-term holders. When the remaining 2021–2024 weak hands finish distributing, the next leg should be explosive — though Bitcoin always does the opposite of what most people expect.
