Short-term forecast (days — weeks)
I expect a higher likelihood of further declines or at least a continuation of strong volatility in the short term. Main reasons:
Large withdrawals from ETF funds (record outflows recently) which reduces liquidity and increases selling pressure.
Macro factors (doubt about the timing and pace of interest rate cuts by central banks) and a decline in risk appetite have led investors to rebalance away from high-risk assets.
Price and recent transaction data shows a sharp decline from October peaks with elevated liquidations leading to the downward trend.
(Simply put: the market is currently undergoing institutional and partial selling from large position holders — therefore, the likelihood of seeing lower levels or testing stronger supports than now is higher than the likelihood of immediate steady rise.)
Likelihood of a short bounce
There is a chance for a quick technical bounce (temporary upward correction) as technical indicators suggest oversold conditions in some pairs and altcoins — but this bounce is often temporary unless the fundamental catalyst changes (positive net flow from ETF or positive macro news).
Levels to watch immediately
Nearby support level: approximately $80k–$84k — if broken strongly with high volumes, it may open the path for lower levels.
Short-term resistance: around $86k–$90k — breaking it eases pressure and increases chances of temporary continued rise.
Approximate scenarios and probabilities (estimated, not guaranteed)
Further decline / continuation of correction: ~60% (currently the most likely scenario).
Sideways movement with short bounces: ~30%.
Strong and sustainable upward return: ~10–15% — requires a clear institutional catalyst or a shift in liquidity data and flows.
(These are estimated ratios based on current news readings and ETF flows and technical data.)
Quick practical tips (if you want to act now)
If you are a day/swing trader: reduce leverage, use clear stop orders, and allocate a small portion of capital to low-risk trades.
If you are a long-term holder: consider dollar-cost averaging instead of fully entering at once, and wait for a stability signal coming from strong support levels or a reversal in ETF flows.
Avoid trading with high leverage during broad liquidation waves — as they are the biggest reason for large losses right now.
