Founders of Strategy suggest that stablecoins pose a competitive threat to the long-term price trajectory of Bitcoin, challenging Cathie Wood's adjustment of her view on Bitcoin's target price for 2030, reducing her forecast from $1.5 million to $1.2 million.
The debate has erupted over a fundamental disagreement regarding the hypothesis of the impact of the stablecoin sector - valued at $308 billion and currently representing 30% of transaction volumes using digital currencies - on Bitcoin's use cases, or whether it operates within a completely separate economic layer.
Cathie Wood's interview with CNBC on November 6 sparked controversy when she explained why she reduced her forecasts for the coin's price in 2030 by $300,000, saying: 'Stablecoins are currently playing some role that we thought Bitcoin would play,' referring to the rapid adoption of stablecoins in emerging markets suffering from hyperinflation and under central control.
Despite this adjustment, her positive outlook still indicates a rise of 1,100% from current levels, maintaining confidence in institutional investments directing 6.5% of global assets towards Bitcoin.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood: "Given what’s happening with stablecoins, which are serving emerging markets in ways we thought Bitcoin would, I think we can take 300K off of our Bitcoin projection. We are starting to see institutions focus on new payment rails with stablecoins at the… pic.twitter.com/3LNUb9TdQu
— Crypto-Gucci.eth ᵍᵐ (@CryptoGucci) November 6, 2025
Digital capital versus digital financial systems: Two separate economies
Saylor's response via CNBC on November 14 showed a clear divergence, as he described the digital asset landscape as being divided into sectors that complement each other rather than competing forces.
He described Bitcoin as 'digital capital' representing digital gold, with its primary function being a digital credit tool generating returns like the products of Strategy, which is completely different from what he called the 'digital financial system' based on blockchain systems operating under proof-of-stake algorithms such as the Ethereum Blockchain, Solana Blockchain, and Binance Chain, where stablecoins and digitally represented securities and decentralized finance protocols (DeFi) operate.
Saylor clarified that 'no wealthy person would want to buy a stablecoin instead of stocks, real estate, or other assets,' emphasizing that stablecoins meet the need for transaction completion, while Bitcoin serves as a store of value.
Saylor believes that these two sectors fulfill fundamentally different needs for investors, as stablecoins provide programmable cash balances used in payment and financial settlement activities, while Bitcoin allows for investment in a digital asset characterized by scarcity.
While Saylor expects the market capitalization of stablecoins to rise from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars, he ruled out a direct competition with digital assets backed by Bitcoin.
It is noted that Strategy continues to apply this hypothesis strongly, having acquired 8,178 Bitcoins for $835.6 million, at an average price of $102,171 per coin earlier this week.
With this deal, the company's total holdings reach 649,870 Bitcoins as of November 16, with a total value equivalent to $48.37 billion, and an average total price equivalent to $74,433 per coin, representing about 3.1% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Market disruptions test institutional conviction
Both executives' optimism - Saylor and Wood - faces adverse conditions arising from recent market volatility, which caused Bitcoin's price to break the $90,000 support level for the first time since April, leading to evaporated gains for 2025 and inflicting severe losses on average investors in Bitcoin Spot ETFs, given that the average cost of investing in these funds is around $89,600.
The decline in Bitcoin's price by 30% from its all-time high of $126,100 in October led to a withdrawal of $254 million in one day from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on November 17, with the withdrawals concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC.
The stock price of Strategy has also been negatively impacted by the decline in Bitcoin's price, falling more than 60% compared to its all-time highs in November 2024, and the net asset value multiple (mNAV) has dropped to just 1.11 times, representing a sharp decline from the 1.52 times recorded at Bitcoin's peak prices.
Given this unprecedented uncertainty, JPMorgan analysts warned that the company risks being removed from the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100 indices by January 15, which could lead to the company losing investments worth $2.8 billion, after MSCI index providers proposed excluding companies where digital assets exceed 50% of their balance sheet asset value, directly targeting digital asset treasury institutions like Saylor's.
Michael @Saylor has pushed back against concerns that Wall Street’s growing presence in Bitcoin has amplified the asset’s volatility.#Strategy #Bitcoinhttps://t.co/ttN5ApxrDY
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 19, 2025
Despite these pressures, Saylor has maintained his long-term optimistic view during an interview with Fox Business, noting that the annual volatility rate of Bitcoin's price has decreased from 80% in 2020 - when his company Strategy started buying the coin - to about 50% today.
He said: 'The company can withstand a price drop in the range of 80%-90% and continue to operate,' expecting that Bitcoin's price will eventually stabilize at 1.5 times the volatility of the S&P 500 index while providing excellent returns.
In response, veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that Strategy could 'sink into losses' if Bitcoin continues to mimic the soy bubble pattern of the 1970s, a comparison Brandt has often cited.
Currently, market participants are monitoring whether financial market institutions will continue to support strong accumulation strategies for Bitcoin balances in light of recent changes in the crypto markets and the potential reversal of the investment path associated with the currency to negativity.
