1. Why the chances of a short are higher
Price structure is looking weak:
- From 82,828 down to 72,667 we've seen a series of 5-6 consecutive red daily candlesticks with no strong reversals. This is a sign that the bears are in control.
- Lower highs and lower lows. The daily downtrend hasn't broken.
The nearby resistance zone is heavy:
- 74,395 just broke down, and now it's acting as resistance. This is a good zone to short if the price retraces to test it again.
- 76,630 is an even stronger resistance area, where many candles rejected earlier.
Market sentiment:
- Price drops -3.1% but funding is still positive at 0.0055%. That means many people are still holding Long and paying fees. If price pushes down further, those Long positions will get liquidated → creating strong sell pressure that drives the price even lower. This is called a "long squeeze".
2. A good Short scenario on the chart
Trade idea 1: Short on the bounce to resistance
- Entry: 74,200 - 74,395 when price bounces back up to retest the zone that was just broken
- SL: 75,200 above the rebound candle’s top; risk ~1,000 points
- TP1: 72,667 the old low
- TP2: 70,000 around the psychological round-number area
- R:R ratio ~ 1:1.5 to 1:2.2
Trade idea 2: Short breaks out
- Entry: When the 1H candle closes below 72,667 with large volume
- SL: 73,500
- TP: 70,000 - 69,000
- This setup has lower risk because it follows the momentum.
3. Signs that invalidate the Short setup
If either of these happens, abandon the Short trade immediately:
1. The 4H candle closes above 76,630 → the downtrend is broken
2. There are long lower wicks at 72,667 with volume > 2 times the previous red candles → strong dip-buying pressure
4. Note - The zone from 72,667 to 74,395 is only 2.3% apart. One 1H candle’s movement is enough to sweep SL.
- If taking a Short, reduce leverage to 3x-5x to allow breathing room. Or set a tighter SL.
In summary: The probability of Short working is higher than Long over the next 24-48h, but this is trading the short-term downtrend. Don’t hold a Short when price returns to 70,000 because that’s a strong psychological support zone.
Watch the wave here #BTC 