During the decline last week, the changes in fees clearly indicated that the sentiment for buying low was quite strong.
The obvious change in open interest shows that shorts are gradually starting to reduce their positions.
With the weak rebound of Bitcoin, many short positions began to actively "chase shorts", either to continue to add to short positions for further declines or to add fuel in advance for subsequent rebounds. We need to proceed cautiously.
First, look at the weekly level; Bitcoin maintained at 87,000 last week. Liquidity began to enter from 80,000, along with some reduction in short positions. The downward momentum is starting to encounter resistance. With the expectation of interest rate cuts rising, market sentiment has also slightly eased.
This week, the focus is on the repair of news and sentiment. Whether Bitcoin can welcome a rebound and where it rebounds to becomes crucial.
The 4H level has experienced a two-stage shrinking volume rebound. It has begun to gradually weaken. After the rebound and pullback testing around 8w8, a clear increase in the smaller timeframes' shorts has re-emerged.
Traders who bought at the bottom are gradually reducing their long positions. In the case of continued weakness, the shorts may still intervene and increase volume again, so be cautious about chasing highs.
In the evening during the US stock market period, pay attention to whether the shorts continue to increase in volume downwards. Also, for the liquidity hunt at the previous low point around 8w, which is also a major level for retesting, whether it can form a bottom consolidation area is very crucial for the subsequent reversal.
In simple terms, in a standard bearish structure, the win rate of trend-following trades is inherently higher than that of counter-trend trades.
Resistance above: 88860/90850/92354
Support below: 81570/80400/77285/74470
The exchange rate changes are not very obvious. The market trend is basically synchronous. No individual cryptocurrency can stand alone.
Ethereum is still at a weak level compared to Bitcoin. No one is superior; under the condition that the market hasn't stopped falling and stabilized, it will take some time to see a strong breakthrough of the downward trend.
After the weak volume rebound over the weekend, the overall trend is synchronized with Bitcoin. After rebounding to around 2880, there are obvious signs of stagnation, and it is beginning to weaken. Those who bought at the bottom need to defend their positions well.
If it follows Bitcoin and dips again, pay attention to the price performance near the previous low point. Especially if the market increases volume and breaks new lows, the shorts will continue, and it will go deeper.
The overall view remains the same as before. Until it can stand above 3060, we should still treat it with a bearish oscillation mindset.
Resistance above: 2878/3940/3060
Support below: 2705/2593/2528
It is moving relatively orderly and meets expectations.
The rebound back to 134 has begun to encounter pressure and fall back. The price performance is significant. A shrinking volume rebound ultimately failed to bring continuation.
The smaller timeframes are starting to pull back. In the evening, also pay attention to the price performance during the rebound test in the 133-135 range. If it cannot break above again, it will basically announce the end of the rebound and shift into oscillation.
If it follows the market and continues to break down with volume, also pay attention to the price performance near the previous low point. After a breakdown, chasing the shorts requires quick hands and diligent profit-taking, to guard against violent rebounds in the smaller timeframes.
After the rebound ends, treat it temporarily with a horizontal rectangular oscillation mindset. Whether it is a continuation of the downward trend or a potential accumulation reversal, it is only advisable to consider entering long positions after seeing a stable breakthrough above 135.
Resistance above: 133.2/135.9/139.8
Support below: 126/121.8/113.3
$BNB
The daily chart is testing the high point of the first surge around 800. The smaller timeframes are experiencing a quick rebound and pullback.
However, due to it being the weekend, the rebound strength is very weak. The trend is basically synchronized with Bitcoin. There is no independent market in the short term.
The rebound is gradually weakening, and there is also no suggestion to chase the rebound.
Pay attention to the subsequent price performance during the retest around 800.
If it breaks down with volume, the downward oscillation will continue. Watch for support around 730.
Pay attention to the rebound test of the resistance around 880. As a significant support and resistance level on the daily chart, if it can successfully break through, the rebound will continue and possibly go higher.
Before it can break through and stabilize in this range, we should still treat it with a downward oscillation mindset.
Resistance above: 880/930/990
Support below: 800/730/691
#btc#eth#sol#bnb
