The Dawn in the Darkness: Futures Market Data Suggests an Imminent Bounce Back

When the spot market is filled with sorrow, the data from the derivatives market reveals a glimmer of positive signals. Despite ETH prices falling to a four-month low, the futures open interest has not significantly decreased, but rather has shown some recovery at certain price points. Meanwhile, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has returned from extreme negative values to neutral levels, even showing a slight positive rate.

More importantly, data from major futures exchanges indicates that "whale" accounts with significant capital are quietly increasing their long positions around the current price levels. This behavior is often seen as a signal that "smart money" is positioning itself for a rebound. They may believe that the market has become overly pessimistic, and the current prices offer a good risk-reward ratio. Historically, when prices fall sharply without panic liquidations in the derivatives market, and large accounts begin to go long, it often signals that a technical rebound is approaching, with $3,200 possibly being the first significant target for the rebound.