Considering our explanation of what Bitcoin is in the previous article.
Let's perform an updated technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the latest trends and potential scenarios.
But a very important note: technical analysis is not an investment recommendation — use it as a helpful tool and always be cautious.
The current technical analysis for BTC (November 2025)
1) Current market situation
Some analyses suggest that Bitcoin is trading at a critical support level.
BTCC
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The price is close to the lower limit of the 'Bollinger Band' according to BTCC analysis, which may provide an opportunity for a short-term rebound.
BTCC
There are also positive momentum indicators (MACD) from some analysts, indicating the possibility of a temporary upward push.
BTCC
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BTCC
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On the other hand, Alchemy Markets analysis indicates a 'structural decline' outlook after breaking some important supports:
Breaking the 50-week EMA (long-term moving average) → a sign of weakness.
Alchemy Markets
An important rising trend line from previous periods has been broken, which may indicate the beginning of a larger correction.
Alchemy Markets
Potential negative targets according to this analysis: the area of $80,524 as an initial target, which can extend to $75,000.
Alchemy Markets
On the forecast side: some analysts see a 'bull trap', meaning the current rebound may be temporary before further declines towards ~ $74,000.
Finance Magnates
Conversely, some forecasts (such as from CoinCodex) suggest that Bitcoin may remain within a range between $86,000 and $98,000 for some time.
CoinCodex
2) Possible scenarios
Based on the above analysis, there are 3 main scenarios that can be considered:
Scenario A — Short-term rebound (Relief / Bounce)
BTC may achieve a rebound from the current support level (the lower area of the Bollinger Band).
BTCC
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If this rebound occurs, it may target nearby resistance levels such as moving averages or some psychological points (according to previous analyses).
This scenario is suitable for those betting on a 'temporary correction' rather than a complete trend change.
Scenario B — Structural decline (major correction)
Analysis from Alchemy Markets indicates that breaking a rising trend line + breaking the 50-week EMA may open the way for a deeper correction.
Alchemy Markets
Potential targets in this scenario:
First target: ~ $80,500 approximately.
Alchemy Markets
Deeper target: ~ $75,000 if downward pressure continues.
Alchemy Markets
This scenario may be 'open' if macroeconomic pressures arise (such as a strong dollar or declining liquidity).
Scenario C — Sideways range (consolidation)
It is possible that Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase at a range between ~ $86,000 to ~ $94,000 (or a nearby range) according to predictions from some platforms.
In this scenario, there may not be a significant immediate breach, but rather fluctuations within a certain range until economic trends or institutional liquidity become clear.
This scenario is good for investors who prefer 'accumulation' or waiting until the trend becomes clear.
3) Recommendations based on scenarios (proposed strategy)
Depending on your risk tolerance and goals (long-term investment or short-term trading), here are some recommendations:
If you are a long-term investor ('HODL'):
You could benefit from dips at this time if you believe that Bitcoin will rise again later.
Use a DCA strategy (dollar-cost averaging) – buy small parts instead of the entire amount at once.
Save part of your Bitcoin in a cold wallet to reduce security risks.
If you are a short-term trader (swing trading):
Look for rebound signals from support (such as candles with 'lower wicks' at support levels, or high buying volume).
Use a good stop-loss below the main support level (for example, if it breaks $80,500, it may call for closing the position).
Do not enter a large buying position if it only retraces without confirmation signals – as the 'Bull Trap' scenario is possible according to some analyses.
If you are unsure and wish to wait:
It is wise to wait and monitor the price in the coming days to see if it will break support or confirm a rebound.
Follow macro news (such as US interest rate decisions, global liquidity), as they may be a significant catalyst for Bitcoin movement.
Have a pre-planned strategy: If a certain level breaks, what will you do, and if it retraces, what is your target?
