29/05/2026
The fate of the global economy just flipped in the White House Situation Room. Oil prices are tanking, Artificial Intelligence is booming, and cryptocurrencies are gearing up for a historic move.
The Geopolitical Turn of the Year: US - Iran Ceasefire
The biggest news of the day is the diplomatic twist between the United States and Iran, following months of open conflict (which also involved Israel).
What's happening? US and Iranian negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement for a ceasefire extension of 60 days. Right at this moment, US President Donald Trump is in the White House Situation Room to give his final thumbs up to the deal.
Peace treaties and conditions: The draft agreement seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international commercial traffic. As a condition, Iran will have a 30-day deadline to remove sea mines from the area. Negotiations will continue during the truce to address the Iranian nuclear program, although sources in Tehran claim that the current memorandum does not include immediate atomic concessions.
Commodities and Currencies: Oil, Gold, and Dollar The military de-escalation has caused massive relief in the commodities markets:
Oil: Brent and WTI crude are experiencing their largest monthly drop since 2020. Brent is down about 1.3% today, sitting near $92, accumulating a 19% drop since late April as the risk of an energy blockade in the Middle East dissipates.
Gold (XAU/USD): It acts with volatility but remains at historically high levels due to the inflationary aftermath of the conflict, trading today around $4,531 per ounce (+0.81%).
Dollar: With the reduction of geopolitical tension, the dollar is losing ground globally (the DXY index is easing), which relieves pressure on other currencies and risk assets.
Market Impact (Stocks and Crypto) and Macroeconomic Sentiment Effect:
The drop in oil distances the specter of "stagflation" (high unemployment + high inflation). As energy prices decrease, investors breathe a sigh of relief and return to buying risk assets.
Stock Market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100): They show mixed behavior with a markedly bullish bias in the tech mega-caps:
Microsoft (MSFT +4.16%) and NVIDIA (NVDA +1.33%) lead the tech optimism. There’s also an impressive rally in semiconductor companies like Broadcom (AVGO +3.32%), Micron (MU +4.24%), and a colossal jump in Dell (DELL +28.52%) driven by AI demand.
In contrast, the consumer and retail sector is experiencing significant corrections: Amazon (AMZN -0.67%), Walmart (WMT -3.17%), and Costco (COST -4.63%) are painting their sectors red.
Crypto Market: Cryptocurrencies are directly benefiting from dollar weakness and geopolitical optimism, the market is strongly bullish (898 coins up against only 228 down).
Bitcoin (BTC): It is consolidating strongly above $74,000 (+1.05% on the heat map).
Ethereum (ETH): It rises +1.64% staying above $2,041.
Social Sentiment: The sentiment for key coins like Solana (SOL) and BNB is "Very Positive" on social media and news, driven by bullish technical and institutional factors.
Is there a trend change? Yes, we are witnessing a transition from a safe-haven market (fear) to a risk-on market (greed). Money is flowing out of oil and directly into AI tech stocks and leading cryptocurrencies.
What do you think? Do you believe these 60 days of truce will be definitive or is it just the calm before the storm? ⬇️ I’m reading your comments. ⬇️
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