$BTC has fallen ~20% from recent highs and is trading around the mid-$80k area as sellers press key supports. ETF flows have turned mixed, and liquidations plus macro uncertainty (rates, geopolitics) are weighing on price.
Why it’s still dropping
Macro and flows — softer risk appetite, ETF outflows at times, and headlines around rates/geopolitics reduce demand for volatile assets.
Technical warnings — some analysts note bearish signals (moving-average crossovers / “death cross”) that can extend corrections if confirmed.
Key technical levels to watch (short → medium):
Deep-wash scenario: $40k area — an analyst downside scenario if macro shock + heavy deleveraging hits (lower-probability but material).
When will it bottom? (practical view)
Best case (shallow correction): price finds support at $83–75k, onshore buyers & ETF flows stabilize — rebound follows over weeks.
Bear case (deeper correction): if supports fail and macro sentiment worsens, expect a multi-week retrace toward the $40k–$50k zone before a true long-term bottom forms.
What traders/investors can do
$83–85k — a confirmed daily close below it increases odds of deeper pullback; manage leverage tightly.
Longer-term investors: consider dollar-cost averaging if you believe in BTC’s multi-year thesis; set position sizing to tolerate volatility.
Bottom line: momentum currently favors sellers until BTC proves it can hold $83–85k and rebuild buying volume. A short-term bottom is plausible near $73–75k; a larger macro-driven selloff could push prices much lower. Monitor ETF flows, liquidation metrics, and U.S. macro prints (PPI/Inflation) — those will likely decide the next leg.
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