The latest data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the United States for September is expected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month, and decrease to 2.8% year-over-year, only slightly down from the previous month. Although energy and food costs have pushed wholesale prices up, many key items covered by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index may keep core inflation at its recent levels, becoming the last available inflation assessment before the Federal Reserve meeting in December. The market generally believes that decision-makers will engage in a heated debate between "cutting interest rates for the third time" and "keeping interest rates unchanged."
Politically, Trump has intervened forcefully in the midterm elections 18 months ahead, strongly pushing for tax reduction policies and urging Republican candidates to focus on the issue of "affordability" to counter the decline in approval ratings caused by cost-of-living pressures. His strategic planning is viewed as bolstering party mobilization at the same time and building a "firewall in Congress" to avoid a third impeachment. However, polls show that citizens' pessimistic sentiment towards the economy has not significantly improved due to tax reduction policies, making the Republican Party's ability to retain votes before 2026 still uncertain.
Regarding the cryptocurrency market, the 4-hour BTC structure shows that the price is currently trading around $87,700, still stuck in a short-term trading range. The main resistance level above is at the $89,000 line, and once breached, it will open a liquidity window heading towards $90,500-$91,000; while the support below focuses on the 4-hour demand area at $84,000-$84,800, and if it falls below that, it will head towards $82,500. A directional consensus has not yet formed between macroeconomic and inflationary expectations, leading to the market continuing in a liquidity sweep pattern and oscillating within the range in the short term.
The perspective of Bitunix analysts: The dominant factor in the current market has shifted from the direction of politics to the judgment of the rhythm of "persistent inflation versus economic slowdown." The price structure shows that buyers and sellers are still competing in key liquidity areas, and investors should pay attention to the risks of increased volatility before policy implementation in December, and the changes in risk preference reflected by the actual strength of absorption in high price areas.
