The price of XRP trades close to $2.20, stable on the day and with a rise of about 1.5% in the last week. Superficially, the trend still appears stable compared to the broader market.
However, as we delve into investor behavior, one group is quietly shifting from support to risk.
Short-term investors remain positive
HODL Waves monitor how much supply is in different holding time frames. They show that short-term XRP investors are still stable. The one to three-month range increased the stock from 8.80% to 9.48% since November 11. The one-week to one-month range also increased from 4.97% to 6.99%.
These groups usually sell quickly when pressure hits, however, they have instead been accumulating.
The pressure point is with long-term investors. The Net Position Change of Hodlers measures whether long-term wallets, on average, are gaining or losing coins.
On November 23, long-term investors were selling around 54 million XRP. On November 25, this number increased to 84 million XRP, a jump of approximately 56%.
This is not a random spike. A similar increase in sales occurred between November 16 and 18, followed by a sharp drop of XRP from $2.22 to $1.96, nearly 12%.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) shows the reason. NUPL tracks how much profit or loss investors have on the asset. The NUPL of long-term investors is close to 0.50, which falls into the 'belief–denial' region that usually indicates a local top. The last time the NUPL hit this area on November 18, XRP corrected shortly after.
Therefore, the incentive to profit is real, and long-term investors are acting on this — that is the warning sign. A hint that the price of XRP is losing conviction among HODLers.
XRP price maintains key levels for now, but confirmation of a breakout is needed?
XRP is trading between already known levels. The first support is at $2.06. If long-term investor selling increases and the price loses this level, XRP could revisit $1.81, a recent local bottom.
To remain in its green zone, XRP needs to close above $2.24, reversing the short-term trend upwards. This would pave the way for $2.58 and $2.69, but only if large investments support the breakout.
This is where the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) comes in. The CMF measures the money flowing from large wallets. It has risen slightly above zero, indicating some inflow, but is still below a downward trend line. Until the CMF breaks this trend line, the inflows are not strong enough to fully offset the sales from long-term investors.
For now, the price of XRP still remains in its green zone (week on week), but long-term investors — backed by high NUPL and increases in outflows — remain a slow warning sign that traders should watch closely.
The article XRP Analysis: price remains in the green while a group raises an alert was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
