On the morning of November 26, Trump announced on social media: The Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is 'very close to being reached', with the core terms compressed from 28 points to 19 points. Kyiv has tentatively agreed to the framework, with only key details such as territory and NATO status awaiting approval from the two presidents. The market sensed a turning point: gold instantly plunged by $30, and U.S. crude oil fell below $58 per barrel, with risk-averse sentiment rapidly cooling. For the crypto circle, this is one of the biggest 'uncertainties'. Over the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has continuously injected risk premium into BTC—now that peace is in sight, the premium may be quickly withdrawn. On-chain data shows that privacy coins ZEC and XMR, which are linked to the war, plunged 7% first, with a surge in Bitcoin futures short positions and an increase in bearish positions in options. Historical patterns show that geopolitical easing is often accompanied by a 'sell the fact' pullback in risk assets. However, significant tremors also create opportunities: if a final signature is reached, European natural gas and food prices may decline, global inflation expectations may be lowered, the Federal Reserve's space for interest rate cuts may open up, liquidity turning points may arrive early, and the crypto market may replicate the liquidity frenzy after the 2020 QE. Conversely, if negotiations break down and conflicts escalate, gold and BTC will rebound simultaneously. $BTC