#BTCRebound90kNext? ) Current status (snapshot — 27 Nov. 2025)
Bitcoin has risen to ~$91k in the last day, a sign that a wave of buying has emerged and sentiment has slightly improved.
The total crypto capitalization is around $3.1–3.2 Tr (slight increase 24h), with Bitcoin dominance around 57–59%. Volumes have increased slightly, but liquidity remains relatively thin.
Spot ETFs (BTC/ETH etc.) have recorded net inflows today for some products (e.g.: ETH led the flows on the current day), which supports prices in the short term.
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2) Macro signals that support (or not) a recovery
Monetary policy: markets have started to understand a potential relaxation (possible Fed rate cut in December according to some banks), and a more accommodative policy is generally favorable for risky assets, including crypto. If the Fed cuts rates, that's a positive catalyst.
However, Fed officials remain concerned about financial stability and risks to assets, so there is a risk that any 'relaxation' may be prudently calibrated — which could limit momentum.
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3) On-chain and market signals (what shows real health)
Recent on-chain data shows long-term accumulation for Bitcoin but also decreasing liquidity and increased realized losses — this indicates that while some are accumulating, the market still has realized losses and volatility. Until liquidity is restored, consolidation remains likely.
Key measures to watch: net flows to/from exchanges, SOPR (spending profit ratio), MVRV, and futures/options volumes (deleveraging vs. leverage). Recent articles show deleveraging in futures and defensive options — an indication that risk appetite is still fragile.
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4) Regulation & infrastructure
Regulations continue to be a key factor: debates about tokenization, compliance requirements, and positions of large exchanges can quickly influence liquidity and institutional adoption. I recommend watching decisions from the SEC, WFE, and legislative packages from the EU/US.
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5) Scenarios & probabilities (estimate, not guarantee)
(personal estimates based on current data — use them as guidance, not as certain prediction)
The probable scenario (50%) — consolidation followed by moderate recovery: liquidity gradually restored, continuous ETF inflows, Fed cuts rates → BTC/ETH recovers some losses over 3–9 months. (Supporting data: ETF inflows, Fed signals, on-chain accumulation).
The optimistic scenario (25%) — extended bullish relaunch: accelerated institutional adoption, favorable regulatory news, high liquidity → significant recovery (new highs in a cycle). (Requires confirmation through consistent volumes and inflows).
The pessimistic scenario (25%) — stagnation/downgrade: restrictive regulations or macroeconomic shock → capital withdrawals and prolonged consolidation/decline. (Real risk given the fragility of liquidity).
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6) What concrete signals do I monitor daily/weekly (checklist)
Watch these things; if more activate simultaneously, the likelihood of a recovery increases:
1. Positive and consistent ETF flows (consecutive days with large net inflows).
2. Exchanges net outflows (coins withdrawn from exchange to cold wallets) — a sign of accumulation. (check Glassnode/CCData).
3. SOPR and MVRV in recovery (SOPR > 1, MVRV increasing) — indicators that sellers are no longer realizing losses en masse.
4. Healthy volumes & open interest (no massive deleveraging in futures).
5. Macro confirmation: real announcement of rate cuts or favorable developments in economic data.
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7) What you can do (practical strategy and risk management)
If you are an active trader: use key levels (strict stop-loss), don't rely on 'hope' — watch volumes, ETF flows, and liquidity. Consider short positions on false breakouts.
If you are a long-term investor: if you believe in the technology, you can do DCA (dollar-cost averaging) now for projects with solid fundamentals (BTC, ETH, and projects with real utility), but limit exposure to % of the portfolio (e.g., 1–5% if you are conservative, 5–15% if you have a high risk tolerance).
Hedging: considers partial hedging with options or reducing leverage during periods of high volatility.
Partially exit on high volatility: set profit targets (take-profit) and stick to them.
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8) Final recommendation (in brief)
Realistic outlook: there is a decent probability that the market will attempt a short-to-medium-term recovery — supported by ETF inflows and expectations of monetary easing.
But: liquidity is fragile, on-chain indicators show both accumulation and realized losses; a regulatory shock or negative macro signal can quickly nullify these gains.
