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The Next Bitcoin Peak: What the Math Says — Not Emotions

If we look at $BTC history without illusions, we see a clear sequence of cyclical peaks:
📈 $31 → $266 → $1,163 → $19,800 → $69,000.
Each of them was accompanied by explosive growth, but with a clearly visible degradation in percentage returns.

Growth between the peaks looks like this:
• $31 → $266: +758%;
• $266 → $1,163: +337%;
• $1,163 → $19,800: +1602%;
• $19,800 → $69,000: +248%.

📌 The main pattern is simple: each new cycle delivers a smaller percentage gain, while the absolute numbers continue to grow. This is the classic profitability degradation of a maturing asset.

📉 Based on this trend, it is logical to project growth for the current cycle in the range of +70%…+180% from the previous ATH of $69,000. This is not speculation — it is pure statistical data from past market phases.

🎯 From this follows the final peak projection:
• Conservative: $110k – 125k;
• Base scenario: $145k – 160k;
• Aggressive: $180k – 195k.

🧮 The calculations are based on a simple but reliable model: percentage cycle degradation combined with post-halving time intervals (12–18 months). This is why the main window for the final peak falls in the first half of 2026.

⚠️ It is also important to highlight a key market moment: a local bottom has already formed around $80,600, when after rising to $126,000 the price corrected by nearly −36%. A correction of this depth is an absolute norm for the middle of a bull cycle, not its end.

The conclusion is simple:
we are not in a “collapse” phase, but in a phase of preparation for the final impulse. No one knows exactly where the peak will be. But cycle mathematics is already outlining very clear boundaries for the future scenario.

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