#加密市场反弹 Macro expectations have reversed, and the market welcomes a strong rebound! 🚀
Recently, the crypto market has experienced a strong rebound, with Bitcoin significantly rising from a weekly low of $80,600, now back above $91,000, an increase of over 13% compared to the low. Ethereum has also once again broken through the key psychological level of $3,000.
🔥 Core drivers of the rebound
· Fed rate cut expectations have surged: The market's expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have jumped dramatically from about 22% a week ago to 84.9%. This is the primary driver of the warming sentiment towards risk assets.
· Technical oversold rebound: Bitcoin's pullback from October's historical high exceeded 30%, leading to a strong technical rebound demand.
· Shift in options market signals: Bullish sentiment has returned to the derivatives market, with call options at a strike price of $100,000 becoming the product with the highest open interest.
💡 Potential risks and challenges
Despite the improvement in market sentiment, challenges still exist:
· ETF fund outflow pressure: Since November, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has faced record fund outflows, posing a test for the market's continued rise.
· Sentiment remains in "extreme fear": Although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen, it still remains in the "extreme fear" zone, indicating that investor confidence has not fully recovered.
· Key resistance levels suppressing: The $92,000 to $100,000 range is a strong resistance area for Bitcoin, and an effective breakout requires sustained volume.
💎 Summary and outlook
This rebound is driven by improvements in macro expectations and technical oversold conditions. In the short term, if it can stabilize above $91,200 and successfully break through $92,000, further upward movement is expected; while the $80,000 - $82,000 range is seen as a solid key support level at present.
Do you think this rebound is the starting point of a new market cycle, or just a strong rebound in a bear market?
