Positive flows in ETFs, the expectation of tokenization, and an ambivalent technical context mark a scenario of risk and opportunity.
In recent hours, a fresh breeze is blowing in the crypto market: on Wednesday, the ecosystem's capitalization rose by 4% after weeks in the red, exceeding $3.1 trillion.
Bitcoin was the one that caught attention: it managed to surpass $90,000 and will try to defend it as support. But one of its rivals is closely watched by investors.
The cryptocurrency that looks at the market
Ethereum recorded a technical relief in the last sessions and trades, at the time of this writing, above $3,000. The asset recorded a rise of over 5% in the last 4 hours.
This movement comes in parallel with significant inflows into institutional funds: crypto ETFs showed recent net purchases that included nearly $79 million towards products linked to Ethereum. This flow acts as a demand anchor in a market that, weeks ago, suffered massive outflows and strong volatility.
When justifying the small rebound, it must be said that the push is mixed:
On one hand, ETFs facilitate the arrival of institutional money without custody complications, providing technical support to Ethereum
On the other hand, the market is sensitive to messages from the Fed and global liquidity.
In this last point, expectations of rate cuts that boost appetite for risky assets and benefit from the recent rebound can be included.
Keys to Ethereum's recovery
Moreover, the narrative of tokenization, with a potential "supercycle" expected by some managers for early 2026, refocuses attention on Ethereum as a key infrastructure.
Ethereum: fundamentals and warning signals
On-chain metrics are not one-dimensional: ETH staking shows signs of cooling. "New deposits to staking contracts have slowed down and average yields (APY) have fallen as the base of staked ETH has grown," summarizes financial analyst Rodrigo Mansilla to iProUP.
For the expert, "this reduces the incentive to immobilize coins in long positions and forces a comparison of staking with other DeFi opportunities."
In parallel, indicators such as volume and liquidity profile indicate that the resistance between $2,850 and $3,000 concentrates large supply clusters: if that zone is not surpassed with volume, the correction could reactivate.
For another consulted expert, Rubén Peralta, Ethereum "is in a phase of compression between key supports and resistances". The analyst mentions to iProUP the levels to watch:
Supports: $2,800 (first floor) and $2,600-2,500 (structural support in bearish scenario)
Resistances: $3,000-3,200 (short-term wall) and $3,300-3,500 (upper resistances that validate a turn)
"A daily close above $3,200, with increasing volume, would confirm the buying intention and open the way towards $3,500 in the coming weeks," says the expert, suggesting a potential rise of 17%. Conversely, the loss of $2,800 could accelerate sales and bring it to $2,500 as a containment zone.
Regarding short-term projections, Rodrigo Mansilla proposes three possible scenarios:
"The most likely scenario, if ETF flows sustain, places ETH oscillating between $2,800 and $3,500, with potential for a gradual advance towards the upper limit"
"The bullish scenario would materialize with a sustained breakout above $3,500, which, accompanied by strong flows, could trigger a rally towards $4,000 in the coming weeks, depending on favorable macroeconomic data"
Meanwhile, the bearish case would activate in the event of a failure to "close above $3,200 or a withdrawal of volume, which would lead ETH to test the key support zone of $2,600-$2,500"
Ethereum: what's coming
Optimistic projections, like Tom Lee's, which places ETH at $9,000 with the start of tokenization, summarize a possible structural catalyst.
But it is necessary to prioritize: tokenization may generate relevant demand for Ethereum in the medium term, but does not eliminate short-term risks (liquidity, ETFs, rates).
It is reasonable to consider scenarios in which tokenization accelerates demand in 2026, but expecting immediate vertical rises without favorable market conditions is risky.
Experts focus on what traders and investors should look at:
Volume in breakout: seek confirmation of real purchases, not just price spikes
ETF flows: if inflows sustain, institutional support changes the relative risk
Macro data: rate decisions and global liquidity condition the appetite for risk
On-chain: staking metrics, contract activity, and supply concentration.
The fact is that Ethereum has once again demonstrated its dual nature as an infrastructure asset with structural demand and, at the same time, an asset sensitive to liquidity and sentiment. Trading above $3,000, after a rebound of more than 5%, ETH offers tactical opportunities but requires risk management.
The key for the coming days, according to analysts, will be whether institutional inflows via ETF turn into a sustainable trend or remain a temporary technical relief. Tokenization could be the long-term engine. In the short term, the market will decide whether to confirm the rebound or dismiss it with another correction.
