The Federal Reserve suddenly changes its mind, rumors of a rate cut in December are rampant, retail investors in the crypto world should stay vigilant and not be harvested like leeks!

JPMorgan insisted a week ago that there would be no rate cuts this year, but now they've made a 180-degree turn, claiming the Federal Reserve will take action in December. The speed of this flip is even more exaggerated than the crypto K-line charts. However, don’t rush to celebrate that a bull market is coming; Wall Street's 'script murder' is beginning again. The president of the New York Federal Reserve is signaling dovishness, and institutions already knew the economy was struggling, but waited for the employment data to disappoint before changing their tune. This is clearly a game of expectation management, aiming to buy in at low prices. When the September employment data was released, BTC plummeted instantly, serving as a cautionary tale.

Moreover, a rate cut may not necessarily signal a bull market. Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in 2019, BTC fell by 20%. When the good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news. Currently, the market has already inflated rate cut expectations. When the official announcement comes, institutions might collectively sell off. Don't wait until the news breaks to chase; instead, focus on on-chain data to see if there are any movements in whale wallets. This is the approach of smart investors.