The Classic Bear Market (Baseline Scenario)
Historical Trends: $BTC Bitcoin's biggest bear markets typically see peak-to-trough drawdowns averaging nearly 80%.
Projected Floor:Applying a standard 75% crash to a hypothetical cycle top of $126,000 suggests a bottom around $30,000 (a major historical consolidation zone).
Timeline: Bear markets usually last 12 to 15 months, placing a potential market floor around late 2026 or early 2027.
The Milder Bear Market Case:
Market Maturation: Institutional adoption via Spot ETFs has introduced "stickier" capital that is less likely to panic sell compared to retail investors.
Volatility Dampening: The widespread use of hedging tools, such as options, helps absorb volatility and may prevent extreme crashes.
Projected Floor: This scenario estimates a shallower bottom in the $50,000 to $60,000 demand zone.
Risk of a Deeper Crash
Potential Triggers: A severe macroeconomic shock (e.g., global recession), sustained Spot ETF redemptions, or the collapse of leveraged crypto firms could trigger a violent capitulation.
Worst-Case Scenario: In this event, BTC could overshoot the $30,000 support level and briefly "wick into the 20Ks."
$ETH Ethereum Projections:
In a brutal bear market, ETH historically drops 80–90%. In a mild correction (50–60%), ETH is still expected to face a 60–75% downside.
Impact on Altcoins:
Higher Volatility: Altcoins are expected to drop significantly harder than Bitcoin.
Key Takeaway: Investors should structure their risk management to ensure they can survive the most extreme downside scenarios.
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