Listen to me carefully!! A major financial shock is coming in 2026, and the signs have already started to appear. Something big is going to happen in 2026. And no, this is not just a typical banking crisis or a conventional recession cycle. This time the pressure is on the heart of the global financial system: Sovereign Bonds.
The first warning bell? MOVE Index — meaning bond market volatility is waking up.
Right now, three silent cracks are simultaneously straining the world: 1️⃣ U.S. Treasury funding
2️⃣ Japan's yen and carry trade system
3️⃣ China's excessively leveraged credit system
If any one of them bursts, it will shake the world.
But what if all three burst together in 2026? The entire system will collapse.
Let's first talk about what is developing the fastest:
U.S. Treasury Funding Shock
In 2026, the U.S. will have to issue the most debt in history.
At the same time, deficits are increasing, interest costs are rising, foreign buyers are declining, dealer burdens are increasing, and Treasury auctions are under pressure.
Meaning: a recipe for a failed or extremely weak Long-End Treasuries Auction is ready.
And this is no guess — it’s all clearly visible in the data:
Weak auctions
Big tails
Decrease in indirect bids
Increasing volatility in long-term bonds
If this situation looks familiar, it should — the UK gilt crisis also began this way in 2022.
The only difference is that this time the scale is global.
Why is this so important?
Because the price of everything in the world is set by Treasuries:
Mortgages, corporate credit, foreign exchange, debt of emerging markets, repo markets, derivatives, collateral — everything.
If the long end of Treasuries moves, the whole system will start to shake.
Now add Japan's layer on top of this.
Japan is the largest foreign buyer of U.S. Treasuries in the world,
And the backbone of global carry trades.
If USD/JPY goes up to 160–180,
So BOJ will have to intervene,
Carry trades will start to break down,
Japanese pension funds will sell foreign bonds…
And the volatility of the Treasury will increase further.
This means Japan does not fall itself — it amplifies the shock.
And then comes China.
Behind the scenes, there is a bomb of $9–11 trillion in local government debt.
If a major LGFV or SOE defaults →
Yuan falls →
Emerging markets in turmoil →
Commodities rise →
The dollar strengthens further →
U.S. bond yields rise again.
China becomes the second Shock Amplifier.
So what will actually trigger the crash of 2026?
➡️ a weak U.S. 10-year or 30-year bond auction.
A bad auction →
Yields suddenly up →
Dealers retreat →
The dollar strengthens →
Global funding tightens →
Risk assets start to fall together.
What happens next?
Phase 1:
Long-term yields rise rapidly
Dollar strong
Liquidity vanishes
Japan's intervention
Offshore yuan's decline
Credit spreads widen
Bitcoin and tech stocks plummet
Silver lags behind gold
The stock market falls by 20–30%
This is a funding shock — not solvency — and it happens very quickly.
Then comes the response from central banks:
Pumping liquidity,
Swap lines,
Treasury buyback,
Even temporary yield control.
They manage the system,
But simultaneously injects too much liquidity into the market.
And that same liquidity gives birth to Phase 2.
Phase 2 (the real opportunity):
Real yields crash down
Gold breaks out sharply
Silver leads strongly
Bitcoin strengthens again
Commodities up
The dollar peaks
This is the beginning of the Inflation Wave of 2026–2028.
Why are all signs pointing to 2026?
Because several global financial cycles are reaching their peak in the same year.
And the initial danger signal has already sounded:
MOVE Index is rising.
When MOVE + USD/JPY + Yuan + 10-year yields
They all move in the same direction…
so consider the clock at 1–3 months left.
Last point:
The world can withstand a typical recession.
What cannot be tolerated is the random disintegration of the Treasury Market.
2026 is the year when this pressure will finally break —
With the first funding shock,
Then with the biggest Hard-Asset Bull Run of the decade.
