These days, the entire market has not had any hotspots to speak of and is still in a downward cyclical fluctuation period, still lying flat...
Seeing the fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong, has been burning for several days. The cause of the fire is the renovation of an old building, which quickly spread from the outside to the inside and affected the surrounding buildings. As of now, nearly 128 people have died, with many more injured. The manpower and resources invested are countless... This is a natural disaster, as well as a man-made disaster; let us mourn for the victims...
What has made me think is not the cause of the fire, but I have pondered for a long time. I thought of a word related to us: "cycle"
As a witness to the national real estate market rising to its peak and now entering a downturn, I see the future of most of us reflected in this unrelated fire! Many friends took out loans to buy houses during the 2018-2024 period, with mortgages spanning 15-30 years. Of course, I also don't know why I didn't take on a mortgage back then; perhaps the fundamental reason is that I "don't like to trouble others." Most people's down payments come from their parents. I remember my mother asking me in 2017 if we should buy a house. I flatly refused, saying: the average monthly mortgage over decades, with a pressure of several thousand, is too much. There is no margin for error; you cannot get sick or lose your job. What's the difference between this and being imprisoned? That idea was then abandoned.
I also smoothly avoided a disaster; this huge takeover did not fall on me. Looking back, perhaps it’s also due to my character. I don't like to owe anyone, including my parents. This has also left significant pain in my later cryptocurrency ventures... I won't elaborate on this topic.
From the fire, I saw the sweet, sour, bitter, and spicy of the complete cycle of rotation: rising, increasing, craziness, decline, and the despair of a crash, the whole numb process. What kind of person can live a happy life? I think it’s those who can foresee their own and their family’s future. They have self-awareness and can control their desires. When making major decisions, they can achieve the worst safety margin. (Buying a house, getting married, having children, investing, career) If you can project yourself, you can find the state that suits you best at the moment.
Investment is the same. When the market is down, lying flat and waiting is the best strategy. At this time, your so-called abilities and skills are worthless. Without emotions and good stories, even if you are Buffett, you must wait.
The real estate cycle we are experiencing is actually just the beginning of the downturn. When houses lose their financial attributes, the residential properties you care about are just the beginning of spending... Since none of us have experienced this, we can only learn from developed countries. The underlying logic, major repairs, and dilapidation of this Hong Kong fire all require funding for maintenance. From the perspective of residential profit and loss ratios, there may be a stage bottom, but the real bottom will still be quite despairing. Just like derivatives in crypto, the current despair is definitely not the worst. After all, we have only just started to encounter this bear market cycle. I just want to say one thing: I hope we can all survive! I want to see everyone in the next round!
