The weakness in the U.S. labor market is becoming a major risk facing cryptocurrencies, with layoffs in October reaching 154,559, the highest level in 20 years, intensifying market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Due to weak liquidity, a thin order book can amplify macroeconomic fluctuations, making this change potentially more significant for Bitcoin and Ethereum than for stocks. Although on-chain indicators show signs of stabilization and a rebound may occur in December, the fund flows for ETFs remain unclear, which means cryptocurrencies will still be sensitive to signals from the Federal Reserve until early 2026.