After surging to new highs, crypto markets have entered a “gut check” phase: Bitcoin slipped below $100,000, volume faded, and fears of an exhausted bull run rippled across trading desks and social feeds. But is this the classic cycle top or a pause before the next ramp?
Retail traders, battered by fast reversals and shriveling meme rallies, are pulling back, reflected in record-low sentiment indices and social chatter bordering on despair. Many remember past cycles where euphoria turns into panic, and prices revisit levels that once looked “impossible bargains.” Yet beneath the surface, institutional flows remain robust. Recent months have seen spot Bitcoin ETFs not only survive outflow spikes, but also accumulate historic net inflows on rebounds, especially as traditional asset managers retool for Q1 allocations.
The landscape has also changed—major banks are rolling out tokenization pilots for bonds, funds, and even money market products; regulatory “clarity acts” are gaining steam. Corporate adoption continues: payment rails, stablecoin pilots, and custody solutions are live in ways retail traders may not appreciate until they’re mainstream. While price remains choppy and short-term signals blend fear and apathy, this infrastructural build-out supports a long tail for adoption and price stability.
Cycle experts are divided: some call the bull run “over” after breaching critical support near $108k, pointing to expensive long-dated put options as proof bears are betting on deeper declines. Others, though, see echoes of 2022, when extreme sentiment lows triggered major rallies as “weak hands” exited and serious stakeholders stepped in. This split, between emotionally spent retail and quietly scaling institutions, is the new feature—not bug—of the 2025 cycle.
What to watch: trends in ETF flows, new tokenization launches, changes in regulation headlines, and any signs of macro easing. Deep consolidations often refuel major moves. If the “bear path” proves true, risk discipline is critical. But with institutions increasingly dominating supply and product rails, the bull run’s ultimate finality could be farther off than traders expect—especially if Q1 2026 brings the much-hyped liquidity rotation most funds now anticipate. Long-term, the slow climb toward mainstream and regulatory rails may matter more than social hype.
